The Pound is in Trouble

The pound is in trouble. Our currency man, Bill Jenkins, sheds some light on the situation:

"Reason #1: Inflation is falling, which generally means no forecast for a rise in rates. No rising rates means no attraction for investors. Inflation has been falling since October '08: 5.2%, 4.5%, 4.1%, 3.1%, 3.0%, 3.2%, 2.9%, 2.3%, 2.2%, 1.8%.

"Reason #2: U.K. exports have hit the skids for the period going back to November. Check out these numbers year-over-year: November: $36,260 billion; December: $35,190 billion; January: $34,412 billion; February: $33,046 billion, March: $32,765 billion; April: $32,264 billion; May: $32,239 billion; June: $31,888 billion; July: $32,208 billion. In spite of the flattening out over the last couple reporting periods, there is no recovery here.

"Reason #3: Industrial production in the United Kingdom has maintained double-digit losses since January: -12.1%; February: -12.7%; March: - 12.6%; April: -12.4%; May: -11.9%; June: -11.1%. Without production, nothing sells. No sales.. no income. No income... no jobs.

"Reason #4: Thus the unemployment rate has been rising every month since January: 6.3%, 6.5%, 6.7%, 7.1%, 7.2%, 7.6% and 7.8%. Unemployment is still on the rise. Nearly one in five households are living on government benefits, with nearly 2 million children living in homes where no adult is working.

"Finally, in the oddity column...

"Reason #5: Business confidence and consumer confidence have been on the rise (although I am not sure why). I have mentioned to you before that sentiment figures are not really fundamental indicators. However, you can view them in a contrarian light when the real numbers are falling and the sentiment numbers are rising. Everybody wants things to be better but, as St. Paul writes, 'He that deceiveth himself is not wise.' And when we do ignore the 'facts,' they always come back to bite us!

"This is the foundation of a sucker's rally. People are drawn out of the woods and back into the mainstream, only to be blindsided by another whack from the recession paddle."

"Forget properties or shares," writes a dear reader. Here's how to make real money:

From the Bristol Evening Post:

"Outside Bristol Zoo is the car park, with spaces for 150 cars and 8 coaches. It has been manned 6 days a week for 23 years by the same charming and very polite car park attendant with the ticket machine. The charges are £1. per car and £5. per coach.

"On Monday 1 June, he did not turn up for work. Bristol Zoo management phoned Bristol City Council to ask them to send a replacement parking attendant.

"The Council said, 'That car park is your responsibility.' The Zoo said, 'The attendant was employed by the City Council...wasn't he?' The Council said, 'What attendant?'

"Gone missing from his home is a man who has been taking daily the car park fees amounting to about £400. per day for the last 23 years...!

"Total sum just short £2.9 million."

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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