The US Deficit of Deceit


But the phonies over at the Fed Reserve might be a tougher nut to crack. Despite having created, administered and presided over a crumbling financial system, the market still hangs on their every word. Last night, the word from the Fed disappointed.

Rather than administer a fresh blast of money printing to boost risk assets around the world and reward speculators, the Fed meekly opted to do a little more of the same. That is, continue to buy long dated bonds and sell short dated bonds…an extension of Operation Twist. There was no mention of balance sheet expansion…of buying additional amounts of Treasuries or mortgage backed securities.

They did downgrade their economic growth forecasts though…and ratcheted up their unemployment forecast. Only two months ago they were far more bullish. What a bunch of phonies…

Given the month long hype we’ve had to endure about the likelihood of more QE, it was all a bit of an anti-climax. And the market didn’t really know what to think…it was all over the shop.

This fits into our theory that the Fed’s primary aim of money printing is to fund the government deficit. Propping up the stock market is just a by-product — albeit a beneficial and popular one.

Think about it. The US runs an annual budget deficit of $1 trillion plus. Given the debt deleveraging taking place in the private sector, it is likely the government will continue to run these massive deficits for years to come. $1 trillion — per annum — is a lot of money. Where is the US government going to get it all from?

In the good old days, the US government managed to fund their deficits (which were ‘only’ in the $200 billion range) via the trade deficit. That is, the US economy consumed more than it produced. It paid for the excess consumption with dollars. Its trading partners then recycled those funds back into the US economy by buying Treasury debt. It was the pre-credit bubble vendor financing system that everyone loved so much.

But now, the US government’s borrowing requirement is well in excess of the country’s trade deficit. Recycled trade deficits from trade partners only do half the job. If the market had to soak up the other half, yields would be much higher. So someone else needs to step in to do the buying. Enter the Fed.

But here’s an interesting point. The Fed hasn’t bought additional Treasuries since around September last year. This coincided with another flare up in the European debt debacle. Soon after, the European Central Bank performed its own version of QE, the ‘Long Term Refinancing Operation‘ (LTRO).

Clearly, this operation freed up capital to flow into the perceived safe-haven of US bonds. So it’s our guess that over the past 6 months or so, European capital financed the US deficit. That’s why yields are so low, despite borrowing requirements being so high.

How long this lasts is anyone’s guess. But you’ll know when it ends, because it will coincide with the Fed announcing another round of government bond purchases. The market will probably be much lower by then, so the printing can take place under the guise of propping up the market.

But it will really be about propping up government finances. Don’t tell anyone though. This phony system we operate in is all about maintaining confidence. Once that goes, it’s all over.


Greg Canavan
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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Greg Canavan
Greg Canavan is the Managing Editor of The Daily Reckoning and is the foremost authority for retail investors on value investing in Australia. He is a former head of Australasian Research for an Australian asset-management group and has been a regular guest on CNBC, Sky Business’s The Perrett Report and Lateline Business. Greg is also the editor of Crisis & Opportunity, an investment publication designed to help investors profit from companies and stocks that are undervalued on the market. To follow Greg's financial world view more closely you can subscribe to The Daily Reckoning for free here. If you’re already a Daily Reckoning subscriber, then we recommend you also join him on Google+. It's where he shares investment research, commentary and ideas that he can't always fit into his regular Daily Reckoning emails. For more on Greg go here.

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4 years 4 months ago

“The Federal Reserve will expand its Operation Twist program to extend the maturities of assets on its balance sheet and said it stands ready to take further action to put unemployed Americans back to work.”

Can you imagine what Lucas Cornelius Sulla is going to make of these freaks? May as well pity them now.

Mr Keating (of the private debt fueled services economy is a great racket idea) lecturing Europe on “unity” too. Can you see him wrapping himself around his precious clocks as they come looking for him.

Silver bull
Silver bull
4 years 3 months ago
I was speaking with 2 undergrad. in Finance degree student about the Globle condition and if the US dollar will be replaced. They simply cannot accept USD will be replaced by other currenices or the collapse of the USD. People either just dont care, or ill-infomred about the Banking system around the world. The 2 student think, china will just have to keep buy US bonds. On a personal note, it will take time for the general public to accept they are unable to receive any goods and services from USD. Dont know about other currencies. Just on one view… Read more »
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