The Three Horsemen of the Global Apocalypse

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We read a morning update from John Robb that we liked so much we thought we’d ask John if we could pass it on in its entirety. Robb’s book, Brave New War: The Next Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalisation was one of the best books we’ve read in the last few years about the world we’re moving toward. He continues to write about the major changes in the world and today’s letter is a doozy. If you like what you read below, make sure you check out his blog at http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/

Today Robb wrote about “The Three Horsemen of the Global Apocalypse.” He writes that, “There’s some confusion relative to whether the depression (D2 in shorthand) is over or not. It’s not. The process will be uneven, but it will continue. Why? The three horsemen continue to ride:

  • A huge, complex, and fast moving global system that isn’t under any meaningful level of control. The computer automated interconnectedness of this system makes very easy to spread contagion. Worse, this system is leveraged to the hilt with debt and riven with imbalanced feedback loops (Chinese/German mercantilism). Any crisis can set off a global crash. NOTE: Rick Bookstabber (via Kedrosky) thinks a collapse in the municipal bond market will be the source of the next crisis.

  • A financial oligarchy that has shifted loyalties to the global market (think in terms of the shift to primary loyalties in fourth generation warfare). This group is highly destructive to its host, and in a process similar to cancer have co-opted normal market function via the establishment of the shadow banking system. The huge size and opacity of this system has allowed them to systematically loot the middle class and gut national treasuries (via a process known as control fraud). If municipal bonds are the cause of the next global financial collapse, these oligarchs will be center stage: note JP Morgan’s role in the collapse of a municipality in Alabama.
  • A plethora of violent super-empowered guerrilla groups. The legitimacy of nation states will continue to diminish due to a financial insolvency (which means it won’t be able to finance social/stability programs), successive global shocks, and tolerance of looting by a financial oligarchy. As national legitimacy weakens, people will give their loyalty to groups (gang, church, tribe, etc.) that can protect and provide for them. Many of these groups will be violent. As these groups multiply in number, open source warfare and systems disruption will spread. For the US, think in terms of what is going on in Mexico or what went on in the USSR post collapse, but bump it up a couple of orders of magnitude.

There’s a lot to think about there. More on the value of a big picture view tomorrow. Until then…

Dan Denning
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

Dan Denning
Dan Denning examines the geopolitical and economic events that can affect your investments domestically. He raises the questions you need to answer, in order to survive financially in these turbulent times.
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2 Comments on "The Three Horsemen of the Global Apocalypse"

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Josh
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Dan,

You’ve commented a lot on Australian banks and rising residential property values, but I’ve never heard any commentary on how one might play this scenario and profit from it. Where are you putting your money?

Ross
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The fact that people write these stories and that they are popular (Schwarznegger movies etc) is evidence that the human condition and survivalism are powerfull and adaptable forces. But having DR’s notice of Ron Manner’s upcoming meeting in PER, and having taken the opportunity to get a hold of his book as recommended by DR, I think I might throw a few words into the pot. Right now alot of people are questionning whether the degeneration of rat society as witnessed in scientific study after the fundamentals of their communal life supports are disturbed also plays out for humans. I… Read more »
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