However, your thinking like this has its basis in false belief. "...I believed that the market would go slightly up over the next week with a high probability. How high? About 70%."

It is impossible to calculate the probability of any event and any future state of an open system. The belief that Open-systems probability calculation is valid arises from the misuse of statistics as presented by Campus Marxists to justify socialist political action.

Campus Marxists have inculcated into millions of college students the false belief that it's possible to calculate probability upon open systems. You can't.

To do so would require you to know every possible future state and your own actual future state relative to each possible one. You simply cannot know meta-states, position and direction of any open-system (thank you Mr. Gödel and Mr. Heisenberg).

Sure you can claim some silliness like being able to estimate the likelihood of a probability. This is no different than saying, I estimate the likelihood of the probability of me eating today as high, but I can't tell you when I eating will happen. A cartoon anvil could fall through the ceiling and knock me out for the remainder of the day just seconds before I take my first bite.

You can calculate probability of events happening only with closed systems, like black jack with a fixed number of cards. Often you will hear mathematical persons say "the probability of you dying in an airplane crash is 1 in 10,000 flights." Yet, this is absolutely false. There is no way for a mathematical or any human to know any future.

For this to become true, our mathematical person would have to sail into the future, looking back and count how many flights and how many crashes did happen during our now actualized past.

At best, a mathematical person can say only, for example, during the year 1974, when 10,000 flights happened and 1 crash happened with all persons aboard dying (let's make this easy), the probability of you dying was 0.01%.

The total handle of a stock exchange (or some index thereof) can rise ONLY under these scenarios.

[1] Net cash flow to a stock exchange casino is the same. Total number of tradable shares falling.

[2] Net cash flow to a stock exchange casino is increasing. Total number of tradable shares the same.

[3] Net cash flow to a stock exchange casino is increasing faster than the rate of increase of tradable shares

There are NO OTHER ways for the prices of stocks to increase, none. There simply has to be more cash bet than cash cleared away.

In order to calculate a probability of a stock exchanges total handle to go higher after a day's worth of trades, you would have to know before the start of trading these salient facts:

[1] from all shares outstanding (since some are caught up in estate, bankruptcy and divorce courts), how many will be made available for trading before the start of trading
[2] what is the sum of cash that will be brought to the game before the start of trading
[3] what was the number of shares traded yesterday
[4] what was the sum of cash traded yesterday

Humans rarily react to one-off events with decisive action. Only a select few have training to do so (NFL quarterbacks, race-car drivers). Even men in combat freeze at the worst of times -- when they need to pull triggers.

When push comes to shove, many humans will get up and go. Events are causally connected like "YES" ladders that get women into bed or growing louder footsteps that spook some to run.

Instead of praying for one-off "rare events" that validate your "skewed bets", you should scan for successive stories that will support a change in the false beliefs of stock exchange casino bettors. Look for rapidly growing Chicken Little stories or events that lead to Perfect Storms.