Two of the Cheapest Stock Markets in the World

Reddit

Every year, I go to the Agora Financial Investment Symposium in Vancouver, both as speaker and attendee. It’s jampacked with people from all over the world who gather at the Fairmont Hotel to share ideas. As soon as I walk into that grand old railway hotel, I know there will be some surprises. This year was no different.

Ideas were not in short supply, but some ideas were more common than others. More than a few speakers spoke well of gold and oil. Most had dim views of the economy and the stock market. And there were at least a handful whose best ideas hailed from some emerging market.

A couple of my favorite ideas came from investors based in Dubai and Moscow. Whole markets rarely go on sale, but here we have two examples of stock markets trading for about 6 times earnings.

Peter Cooper is our man in Dubai, as you may remember, and a friend of mine. From his perch in Dubai, he writes an interesting investing newsletter called ArabianMoney. He is also a self-made millionaire who made it in the Middle East. He sold out near the top. But now, Peter says Dubai is a buy again. In fact, Peter says, the whole United Arab Emirates is a buy.

Dubai, to help with the geography, is one of the seven emirates that make up the UAE. It had a spectacular boom, festooned with palm-shaped islands, tall towers and a ski resort in the desert. Of course, it all went to pot, as these things do when they get ridiculous. But Dubai and the UAE are not going away.

“Dubai is still the trading hub of the Middle East,” Peter tells us, “and the UAE is its Switzerland, a safe haven in a troubled region.” It still has one of the fastest growing airports in the world, as well as one of the fastest growing and largest marine ports at Jebel Ali. The latter has no rival in the Middle East. And I can tell you from personal experience that the infrastructure in Dubai is world-class.

Abu Dhabi is also an incredibly rich place. The per capita wealth is $18 million. That means a family of four is well on its way toward $100 million. Abu Dhabi sits on $3 trillion of proven oil reserves. It has a sovereign wealth fund of over $1 trillion. It has zero debt. As Peter says, “This might be officially classified as a frontier market, but actually, the UAE is more first-world than third-world and has stronger finances than any developed country.”

So why now? Peter says there are many signs of a bottom. The UAE stock market trades for six times earnings. Big positive announcements have no impact on stock prices. There have been 11 brokers that have closed up shop in 2010, as stock market volume is down 90%. It’s the classic example of a bombed-out market in which people have given up. “Even the Swiss bankers are very negative,” Peter says, “so you know it’s time to buy.”

As long as oil holds up, the UAE will return. Peter suggests buying the UAE exchange-traded fund from the National Bank of Abu Dhabi. It’s easy to buy through an HSBC online trading account. This is a good idea, but a bit of a pain to implement. This next idea, though, is much easier to put in action.

Eric Kraus is our man in Moscow, where he is a money manager. We’d only swapped e-mails before, so I was glad to finally meet him in person in Vancouver. I also liked his presentation, which included some surprising ideas on Russia.

BRIC Equity Returns

For instance, of all the ballyhooed BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – do you know which market has done the best over the last decade? Russia.

Now, lots of people – including your editor, actually – have some worries about investing in Russian companies. They are not paragons of disclosure, for one thing. And we all remember what happened to Yukos, which collapsed in the blink of an eye as the government went after it for political reasons.

Our Western sensibilities, though, cloud our vision on Russia, says Kraus. A big part of his message in Vancouver was to say that the Western orthodoxy of free markets, democracy and transparency has little to do with picking winners in the market. The chart above makes that clear. As Kraus puts it, “Ideologically driven disinformation can cost you a fortune.”

Still, Kraus used a lot of words you don’t normally associate with Russia. Kraus describes Russia as “very low risk” with “stable macroeconomics and politics… where reform is going on far faster than Europe, but slower than Asia.” Russia is “by far, the wealthiest of the BRIC countries,” Kraus says.

He called it “a middle-income, moderately high-growth (5%) middle European country with the world’s largest resource base.” It has abundant oil and gas, but also lots of farmland and fresh water and hydropower. Once one of the world’s largest grain importers, it is now a top exporter. (Well, before very recent events…)

Russia also has plenty of cash – the world’s third largest foreign currency reserves. Poverty has been cut way down. So things actually look pretty good for Russia. “Of course, the Western press hates it!” Kraus says. “If you have a long-term time horizon, Russia is a no- brainer. It is the cheapest stock market in the world, at less than 5 times earnings… Cheaper than Pakistan!”

The easiest way to buy Russia is to buy the Market Vectors Russia ETF, which trades under the ticker RSX on the NYSE.

Kraus is particularly bullish on Russia not only because it is cheap, but because he believes the price of many commodities will rise. “Peak Oil is a mathematical certainty,” he says. Not in the sense that we are going to run out of oil, but that prices will rise as we reach for more expensive sources of oil.

“And it’s not just oil,” he continues. “Grades of copper, and nickel and bauxite ores are now being mined, which no one would have bothered digging up a couple of decades ago… Peak water! A lot of places are running dry, and this will have scary effects upon agricultural prices.

“The predominance of the West is an anomaly in history,” Kraus goes on. “It ended with the turn of the millennium.” It is now a “multipolar world” – in ideas and commodities. Instead of the traditional New York- London axis, the economic world will spin on different poles from Beijing to São Paulo.

I think he’s right. It will be a far more complex and interesting world over the next several years as the emerging markets emerge. In the meantime, the market offers up two very cheap emerging markets – the UAE and Russia!

Chris Mayer
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

Chris Mayer
Chris Mayer is a veteran of the banking industry, specifically in the area of corporate lending. A financial writer since 1998, Mr. Mayer's essays have appeared in a wide variety of publications, from the Mises.org Daily Article series to here in The Daily Reckoning. He is the editor of Mayer's Special Situations and Capital and Crisis - formerly the Fleet Street Letter.
Reddit

Leave a Reply

3 Comments on "Two of the Cheapest Stock Markets in the World"

Notify of
avatar
Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Rupert Neil Bumfrey
Guest

You may be interested in this: http://www.wallstwtf.com/2010/08/arab-world-needs-its-markets-like-fish.html for a closer look at the markets in GCC.

Not being a crystal ball expert I am loathe to advise, but when local banks have still yet to take full provision for NPL’s, which are remarkably low compared with HSBC and Standard Chartered (who have other regulators to comply with), I fear more bad news is waiting to douse the kindling!

SV
Guest
Erm, as a former Russian who occassionally follows the events there I am wondering what reforms Eric Kraus is talking about. The only reforms I see is expropriation of property of previous country rulers in favour of the current ones. There is not just Yukos, there are also TNK-BP, Sibneft, NTV and others whose offices were stormed by local special forces and management forcibly removed. Doing business in Russia is tricky and dangerous; is this really business at all? What’s the RTS index comprised of anyway? Rusal/Gazprom/Norknickel? Run by former mafiosi/KGB.. Yeah, it may still be possible to make money… Read more »
Eric Kraus
Guest

It funny that you should mention BP. Yes,
They had a bit of a hard time when they
Tried to do a dirty on their oligarch partners.
In the end, all was settled, and they have
Earned $20bn in dividends on a $7bn investment.
Contrast this with their recent difficulty on the Gulf Coast –
Where by law they had a $75M liability cap…that is, until
The White House ripped up the rules book!
Caveat Emptor!

wpDiscuz
Letters will be edited for clarity, punctuation, spelling and length. Abusive or off-topic comments will not be posted. We will not post all comments.
If you would prefer to email the editor, you can do so by sending an email to letters@dailyreckoning.com.au