US Real Estate Market Sits in the Waiting Room

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Dead guys walking…

An article at the Zero Hedge website says Paul Krugman is either “an imbecile or a fraud.”

We wouldn’t go that far. He might be only mildly retarded…or the victim of higher education. He has learned so much about modern economic theory that there is no room left in his brain case for good, old common sense.

More on that later in the week….

In the meantime, the Dow closed up 46 points yesterday…not enough to get excited about one way or the other. Oil traded at $74 when they turned off the lights. And gold slipped a little, but still is close to a new record.

This time gold approaches its old high in silence. All eyes and ears are focused on the US Treasury market, which many analysts say is in a bubble. Few notice gold creeping up to an all-time high.

Neither gold nor Treasuries are really in bubbles – yet. Gold is about where it ought to be, it is about as valuable as it has usually been for the last 2,000 years. And Treasuries? Well, there the story is more complicated. But here’s something interesting: 30 years ago, 30 year US bonds gave you a double-digit yield. Now, they give you less than half that much. And short-term loans to the government give you a yield with almost no digits at all.

Thirty years ago, the fellow running the Fed – Paul Volcker – worked to lower inflation. The current occupant of that post – Ben Bernanke – labors to raise inflation.

Thirty years ago, a wise investor should have taken Volcker at his word and bought US Treasury bonds. What’s a wise investor to do now? Take Ben Bernanke at his word and sell them?

Maybe. We will leave the question dangling…and turn to real estate. Let’s imagine that Ben Bernanke succeeds. Let’s imagine that he nudges consumer price inflation upwards. What happens to mortgage rates? Well, they go up too. Then, what happens to the housing market?

Ooh la la… Housing would be a dead guy walking. There are millions of people who are not buying already – even with the lowest rates since the Eisenhower era. Imagine all those who will not be buying at higher rates!

But many people think real estate has bottomed out. One of our colleagues posed the issue yesterday:

“I think we’re seeing the bottom of the real estate market. There are deals out there. Now is the time to act.”

He was proposing to buy an office building in Baltimore. It had been offered to us for $2.2 million two years ago. We passed. Now it is available at $1.5 million. We will offer $1.1.

“Maybe the downturn is over and maybe it isn’t,” we replied, with our customary helpful assurance. “But why not wait? If prices are going up, they probably won’t go up by much…and not fast. There’s too much inventory coming onto the market.

“So why not wait and see? If the market steadies…or rises…you won’t give up much. If, on the other hand, it goes down…you could get a much better deal by waiting.”

As near as we can tell, the real estate market is just waiting. It doesn’t know whether to go up or down. Some areas are cheap – Detroit, Las Vegas, California. And some areas have barely dropped at all – such as Washington, DC, where the zombies live. Also, there can be a big difference depending on what kind of property you are looking for. There are buyers at the top and the bottom, but not at the middle.

At the bottom of the market are the bargain hunters – bidding on what they consider good deals. At the bottom and lower part of the middle of the market there are also people taking advantage of record low interest rates. They do the math – but only on a month-to-month basis. At today’s low rates they can buy a mortgaged house and make a reasonable monthly payment. What do they have to lose? They need a place to live.

There are buyers, too, for properties at the top end. Rich buyers still have money – though not as much as they had three years ago. They still buy the properties they want when they want – though they may pay less.

The problem, according to our sources, is in the middle. Couples with two incomes. People who need substantial mortgages, but are thoughtful about their money. People who see a house as a substantial part of their assets and the purchase as an investment decision as well as the choice of a place to live. They don’t want to make a mistake.

Is it a mistake to buy now? They’re not sure. So they play it cool. They don’t want to put down a big down payment and then find it wiped out as the market slouches again.

David Lionhardt in The New York Times:


At times, real estate seems to be in the early stages of a severe double dip. Home sales plunged in July, and some analysts are now predicting that the market will struggle for years, if not decades.

Others argue that the worst is over. As Karl Case, the eminent real estate economist (and the Case in the Case-Shiller price index), recently wrote, “Buying a house now can make a lot of sense.”

No one doubts that prices rose roughly with incomes from 1970 to 2000. The issue is whether that period was an exception. Housing bears like Barry Ritholtz, an investment researcher and popular blogger, say it was. The government was adding new tax breaks for homeownership, and interest rates were falling. These trends won’t repeat themselves, the bears say.

As evidence, they can point to a historical data series collected by Mr. Case’s longtime collaborator, Robert Shiller. It suggests that house prices rose no faster than inflation for much of the last century.

The pattern makes some intuitive sense, too. As people become richer, they spend a shrinking share of their income on the basics. Think of it this way: someone who gets a big raise doesn’t usually spend it on groceries. You can see how shelter seems as if it might also qualify as a staple and, like food, would account for a shrinking share of consumer spending over time. In that case, house prices should rise at about the same rate as general inflation and well below incomes.

Here’s the scary thing, at least for homeowners: if this view is correct, house prices may still be overvalued by something like 30 percent. That’s roughly the gap between average household income growth and inflation over the last generation.

It’s also the overvaluation suggested by Mr. Shiller’s historical index. Today, it is around 130, which is way down from the 2006 bubble peak of 203. But it’s still far above the 1890 to 1970 average of 94.

In effect, the bears are arguing that housing was in a multidecade bubble and has now entered a multidecade slump.

And more thoughts…

Zombies, zombies and more zombies…

A friend offered a sober explanation for so many zombies:

“People are not idiots. In primitive societies, smart people always looked for the easiest way to get the calories they needed. Now, they always look for the easiest ways to get ahead. So, it is perfectly natural that they look for ways to take advantage of the system, whatever it is.

“I knew a fellow who had survived the Nazi death camps. He told me that the secret to surviving in such a situation is to be as close to the kitchen as possible. The further you got from the kitchen, the less food you got. You needed the heat of the kitchen…and the food…to survive.

“People who got inside work in the Soviet gulags, for example, survived at a much higher rate than those who had to go out into the fields and forests. The guys who had to work outside were dead guys walking. They couldn’t get enough calories to survive. The guys who worked inside didn’t need as many calories.

“In any society, people have an instinct to stay close to the kitchen. And as government becomes a larger and larger provider…responsible for a larger and larger percentage of the economy…it is more and more important to be close to it…to be close to the kitchen in other words.

“That means, getting a government job, for example. Studies all over the world show the same thing; government employees earn from about a third more to twice as much as employees in the private sector.

“If you can’t get a government job, you try to work as a contractor for the government…or in some government-supported, or government- favored, industry, such as the military or the universities. Or you get your representatives to get you a tax break, or a subsidy, or a grant…

“You get close to the kitchen and you survive.”

*** “Dead guys walking” said a local paper headline. The first “Baltimore Walk of the Dead” took place a few weekends ago, featuring hundreds of “zombies” who did a “zombie walk (and pub crawl)” across downtown Baltimore.

“Scores of the recently deceased [pounded] the streets of South Baltimore,” said the paper. And apparently there was also a prize for “Best Zombie.”

This thing is getting out of hand.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

Bill Bonner

Bill Bonner

Best-selling investment author Bill Bonner is the founder and president of Agora Publishing, one of the world's most successful consumer newsletter companies. Owner of both Fleet Street Publications and MoneyWeek magazine in the UK, he is also author of the free daily e-mail The Daily Reckoning.
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Comments

  1. Speaking of US markets… I noticed the DJIA is missing from the DRA website now..
    Technical issues?

    Stillgotshoeson
    September 10, 2010
    Reply
  2. A little closer to home.. picked this blog link from the Barefoot Investors Blog in the Heraldsun…

    Snapshot of Tasmania real estate….

    http://tasmanianrealestatetrouble.blogspot.com/

    Stillgotshoeson
    September 10, 2010
    Reply
  3. We can read about Canada too….

    http://www.greaterfool.ca/

    Stillgotshoeson
    September 10, 2010
    Reply
  4. There ya go, Steven. A McMansion for <$450K.

    _Amazed_ to learn that TBI is a bear! ;)

    Reply
  5. Read the Nova Scotian thing right through:

    “This is why the people who hoard gold, worship houses, day trade or stuff the orange guy’s shorts are all at peril in their own way. There is no one strategy right now that will protect against opposites, and the greatest risk for the bulk of the population remains running out of money.”

    Reply
  6. So Shoes, any more bear bad news for us?

    Better still, do you care to be a little more precise in your exact predictions for the demise of the DOW and ASX than ‘some point in time’? ;)

    Reply
  7. Snigger, snort, guffaw.

    Thanks for the link Stillgotshoeson (the first one), I’ve bookmarked it.

    That guy is funny.

    Reply
  8. Comment by Justin on 10 September 2010:

    Snigger, snort, guffaw.

    Thanks for the link Stillgotshoeson (the first one), I’ve bookmarked it.

    That guy is funny.

    np Justin.. thought it a good read as well… someone posted it in the comments section on the The Barefoot Investors Blog.. was not from TBI himself..

    Stillgotshoeson
    September 10, 2010
    Reply
  9. “That guy is funny.”

    That other guy, the one who lost his house… and is still paying his debt back at $16K per year, is even funnier. :D

    Let’s see if we can find some more bad news… maybe something even more humourous? Something more to sweeten our day, perhaps? ;)

    Reply
  10. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/cba-on-mission-to-show-investors-that-australias-housing-market-is-still-robust/story-e6frfh4f-1225917155455

    Interesting part…”The strong fundamentals of the Australian economy provide a firm underpinning to the housing market, reducing the risk of a sudden and dramatic collapse in house prices,” the bank said in a presentation lodged with the ASX.

    The strong fundamentals of the Australian economy are tied to the fundamentals of the global economy…
    “reducing the the risk of a sudden and dramatic collapse in house prices” maybe true.. we may just find that a $500000 house in Melbourne in 5 years time is still worth $500000… that still brings affordability down for future buyers (wage rises reduce the income ratio required) and if you were lucky enough to borrow $450000 then the $30000 + a year it costs in interest alone will probaly have one questioning if they made the right choice… same for recent investors..taking a loss 3,4 or 5 years in a row to see no caotal appreciation and even possibly (likely) a decline in prices will have the same result.. Investors questioning if they have done the right thing..

    Lastly CBA stress tested for 14%… most mortgage holders will crack around 10% interest rates with $400K + mortgages plus other borrowing commitments..
    Interest rates were approaching 10% when Liberals were booted out of government and people were starting to hurt then.. we have more people in even more debt now.

    Stillgotshoeson
    September 10, 2010
    Reply
  11. Sugar yielding pretty healthy returns actually Platinum Pete.

    So how is your Platinum?

    If it’s not so good I’ve got a great deal for you in Tasmanian real estate.

    Buy now, or you’ll miss out, on the granite bench-tops and alfresco dining areas.

    Reply
  12. Tasmania? It’s the economy, stupid!~ :D

    Reply
  13. “trip to sell the group’s merits to investors overseas.”

    This might be the key point Stillgotshoeson.

    Overseas borrowings by Australian financial institutions are at a near record high, system credit is expanding (credit spreads falling) in the face of a level of prudence by the RBA not seen for many years (admittedly a low benchmark).

    The next few months will be interesting. Further ‘loosening’ in credit conditions may actually allow things to ‘bubble’ along.

    Reply
  14. Comment by Justin on 10 September 2010:

    “trip to sell the group’s merits to investors overseas.”

    This might be the key point Stillgotshoeson.

    I’d align that more to this article.. moving rates up outside of the RBA moves is atttractive to investors, both foreign and domestic.. not so good for holders of CBA mortgages…

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/first-to-lift-rates-tipped-to-be-cba/story-e6frfh4f-1225916268366

    Stillgotshoeson
    September 10, 2010
    Reply
  15. Minack: “…it just showed we dodged the prick.”

    We never dodged him. We just sent him on a nice long walk….

    Reply
  16. Comment by Stillgotshoeson on 10 September 2010:

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/cba-on-mission-to-show-investors-that-australias-housing-market-is-still-robust/story-e6frfh4f-1225917155455

    Interesting part…”The strong fundamentals of the Australian economy provide a firm underpinning to the housing market, reducing the risk of a sudden and dramatic collapse in house prices,” the bank said in a presentation lodged with the ASX.

    Response to this article from Steve Keens website… Interesting

    http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

    Stillgotshoeson
    September 11, 2010
    Reply
  17. Spruik, spruik, glorious spruik!

    Like a few ‘n ‘ere.

    Reply
  18. nv: Yeah, I don’t visit this site anymore…at least not for the comments. It’s pretty much the Biker and Ned show as always.

    They yabber and yabber, but they won’t do you any favours regarding preparing yourself for any upcoming troubles – they’re completely blind to it. They’re like a parasite on this website…not the kind of commenters that you need to keep reality in check, no, just attention seeking trolls.

    ADR has become fairly worthless as they drive the good commenters away (there are a few good ones left..Justin, Ross, Shoes, and some others) and use the comments section as their own chatroom. Unfortunate for those that still visit this site, but at least the disease is fairly contained :)

    Reply
  19. You mean like the Lone Ranger and Tonto tag-team?

    Reply
  20. Yes. The same that will make a bunch of jokes that could hardly have any less relevance to this website.

    Reply
  21. “…at least the disease is fairly contained…”

    Has been ever since you left, Pete. :D

    Reply
  22. @Stillgotshoeson

    Keen is wrong, he unfortunately used intellect and logic on a system that calls for and follows neither. The amount of wealth in this nation is truly breathtaking, the majority of us live better on average than ay of our counterparts in the world.

    The housing market is being driven by mum and dad investors, these make up at least 40-65% of the property owners in Oz. The government will never let such a large target audience fail in their investments and they have accumulated so much wealth to date that the need for intervention would only arise in catastrophic financial climates.

    The US, UK and Germany are all tracking up and the so called “crisis” will soon be yesterdays news.

    Reply
  23. What i am trying to say is DONT sit and wait for a collapse that will never come, i have resided to the fact that i will renting for my life. I’ll keep saving in he hope that one day i can buy within my means but there is no point wasting energy trying to wish a collapse based on intellect and logic.

    Try instead to put that energy into those people talking just as loudly as Mr Keen but about wealth creation opportunities, most of which don’t involve housing.

    Reply
  24. Comment by Realist on 18 September 2010:

    What i am trying to say is DONT sit and wait for a collapse that will never come..

    I still do not know where I want to live.. a “collapse” may never come this is true.. however I believe the affordability aspect will improve..

    I have noticed of late in the area I live in more houses coming on market under $400K. This was rare, houses under $400K were flogged as needing TLC or developers delights… now they are sold as “opportunities for first home buyesr/investors” to get in at the ground level…

    Interest rates are still climbing.. mortgage rates were nearly 10% when the Liberals were voted out.. people were hurting, struggling under debt load then..a big reason Labor got in. the “GFC” has given some a breather and $400, $500, $600 + a month more in their pockets.. Rates are rising again, that breather is disappearing, people are more indebted, 200000 First Home buyers with most of them having zero budgeting skills or savings history are going to find (as nearly 1/2 are already) that owning (buying) a house is an expensive long term commitment.. The sky rocketing capital growth has gone.. Most investors are looking for capital growth not income.. The increasing rates are going to take more of their cash flow.. If I was looking to buy a house to live in for the next 30 years, I would buy regardless of what the market might do.. I live where I live to be near my children, in a few years they will be adults and my options open up. With not much scope for capital growth and a likely reduction I believe time is still on my side. If/when I decide to buy, I will pay cash for my house.

    Stillgotshoeson
    September 18, 2010
    Reply
  25. The amount of wealth in this nation is truly breathtaking, the majority of us live better on average than ay of our counterparts in the world.

    yes truly breathtaking indeed, its a shame Realist that a side affect to this means the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, put as long as the rich get rich that’s all that really matters doesn’t it

    Reply
  26. “…put as long as the rich get rich that’s all that really matters doesn’t it…”

    Well, logically, if they’re rich, they’re _already_ rich, Steven.
    It isn’t even a side ‘affect’ as you ‘put’ it… .

    Reply
  27. “…they are sold as “opportunities for first home buyesr/investors” to get in at the ground level…”

    You mean the traditional way, Shoes? (As opposed to flying through a second-story window, perhaps?!)

    Reply
  28. I hope rates climb up again soon shoes
    I am sick of this property bubble, im over it

    Reply
  29. “I am sick of this property bubble, im over it”

    Hoping to clamber over the broken bodies of your neighbours, to get at their homes, will do that to you, son.

    Go back to school, listen this time, get a decent job (one that pays at least the average wage) and then buy what you can afford.
    Whoever told you life was meant to be easy lied to you.

    A dream that relies on others falling, so that you can rise, will continue to be a long, drawn-out nightmare.

    Reply
  30. Yep that’s what I want Biker,
    Morons who were prepared to pay ludicrous amounts for S&%$holes deserve what they get.
    Just as you deserve what you get for being a greedy self centred **** with no social values, not giving a f&*% about your fellow countrymen and that you are directly to blame for trying to put them in that situation.

    But at the end of the day they did what you wanted and gave into you and paid the prices you want, so I guess they are equally to blame for the situation as you are.

    You
    (property investors)
    and them
    (morons not saying “No that’s too much to pay for that S*%&hole maybe we should all just sit out and refuse to pay that much”)

    can all get stuffed you both (both groups) caused the problem I had nothing to do with it so I couldn’t care less what happens to you both.

    Reply
  31. Ahh, but you do care. It’s evident in every phrase.

    Yes, we bought property only the _rich_ could afford to buy from us. Yes,
    “…they are equally to blame for the situation…”

    Now we provide the very best rental accommodation to families who _make that choice._ Any fall in interest rates means we can improve those homes… and provide increased comfort and reduced weekly expenses for good people… and, at the same time, increase each home’s value. ;)

    At your age I had the same options as you have right now.
    And I probably whined and whinged about it a little, too.
    Then I worked my a*se off to get exactly what I wanted.
    If you think it will all come _soon_, think again.
    If you think it will come _easy_, you’re simply not thinking at all.

    Our life outcomes are not chiselled in stone and we’re not victims unless we willingly accept that role. You’re presenting right now as a powerless victim.

    It’s not a good look, Steve.

    Reply
  32. “Go back to school, listen this time, get a decent job (one that pays at least the average wage) and then buy what you can afford”

    Biker whoever told you that you can afford a home on the average wage was lying to you.

    don’t insult people based on your ‘perception” of them, i think it has been proven without fault that it is bordering on impossible for the average person to buy a home on the same terms you did when you purcahsed yours in the 60’s and 70’s heck even up until the late 90’s.

    Casting dispersions on what you think the drive and character of a ‘renter’ would be only belies your intelligence.

    Reply
  33. “…whoever told you that you can afford a home on the average wage was lying to you…”

    Then rent into perpetuity. Accept it and move forward.
    Bleat not.

    Reply
  34. No don’t except it

    Reply
  35. Thus proving my point. What you mean ‘Realist’ is: “I don’t _accept_ it.”

    (Just for the record, Steven, I never cast ‘dispersions’.)
    Aspersions, maybe… . ;)

    Reply
  36. Biker if :

    *The government got rid of negative gearing would you

    “Just except it?”

    *If the government decided it was going to release 1000’s of new land blocks in Perth would you

    “Just except it?”

    *If the RBA decides to keep increasing Interest rates will you?

    “Just except it”
    (your mates at the investor club don’t except it when they raise rates, they go down to the RBA and protest about it)

    *If the international lenders decide they want to cut back on credit they give to the Australian banks would you

    “Just except it?”

    Reply
  37. First, who am I talking to right now?
    Is it….

    * Steve, the 25 yo with $150K saved in the bank, living at home with M & D?

    ……………………OR

    * Realist, single-mother-of-two, living in an apartment, holding 200 oz gold purchased at $300 / oz?

    Let’s clarify just who you are, Steven / Realist. These dual personalities across different sites are a little confusing. I imagine either your parents or your children are also confused about your gender benders… .

    Reply
  38. Now, c’mon… this should be easy. Just check your bits. You’re one or the other. Which is it?!~ :D

    Reply
  39. What are you trying to say I am the same person as realist?
    I only use this site,
    I was on another site you were on about 2 years ago or something, have been back on it since then…
    I didn’t even know realist was a women

    Reply
  40. haven’t been back since then I mean

    Reply
  41. OK. I accept this is one of those very difficult choices. Look, as far as I’m concerned, you can be _both._ It must be a Walter-Mitty-like existence, flitting between completely opposite personae, but lifestyle choices are your own business…

    Now to answer your hypotheticals (look it up):

    *IF the government got rid of negative gearing would you

    “Just except it?” NO, I’d just ACCEPT it.

    *If the government decided it was going to release 1000’s of new land blocks in Perth would you

    “Just except it?” NO, they already have and I just ACCEPTED it.

    *If the RBA decides to keep increasing Interest rates will you?

    “Just except it” NO, I’d just ACCEPT it. You really don’t understand
    how offset accounts work, do you?

    *If the international lenders decide they want to cut back on credit they give to the Australian banks would you

    “Just except it?” NO, I’d just ACCEPT it.

    Now normally, consecutive repetitions mean new learning sticks.
    Some really intelligent folk manage to self-correct after one or two hints.
    I ACCEPT that you may not fully understand (yet) and I’d give up, EXCEPT for the fact that I don’t give up. Get it?

    Reply
  42. “These dual personalities across different sites are a little confusing.”

    That’s what you just said, I want you to go and find the links to the different sites that both “ME AND HER” have made posts on to show me what I supposedly have said.

    “OK. I accept this is one of those very difficult choices.”

    Its only a difficult choice because you made it a difficult choice by saying what you said and shot yourself in the foot.

    You can be quite deluded at times Biker I must admit you have been deluded a few times before, the one I remember the most was when you accused me of saying that I said you were lying in regards to your sons assets, then when I asked you to prove to me where I said that you couldn’t manage to.

    Reply
  43. Here are some other hints you may ACCEPT:

    * Get a dictionary, if you can’t figure out how online dictionaries work;

    * Check Name (required) before you post. It saves gender confusion later.
    Go back a few posts to see how you blew it. I thought it was obvious,
    but it seems nothing is obvious to you, Steve / Realist.

    I’d offer some higher level advice to assist you, but for over two years you’ve ignored every single bit of advice given by older people. Your problem is that you have _always_ known better than your teachers and your parents. You blame a sh*tty state school system for your own lazy literacy; in the same way as you blame the entire financial system for your inability to buy a home.

    Does this mean I’ll give up on you? No, you can continue to “f&*%” and “S&%$holes” at “them morons and their S*%&hole” in the sure and certain knowledge that Biker Pete will _always_ be here to tutor you, without cost. Just part of the service. :D

    Reply
  44. HAHA I was correct wasn’t I
    You are unbelievable.
    You are good at making assumptions very good…

    Show me the other sites I have posted on…
    Why couldn’t you do that?????

    No proof whatsoever

    What post did I “blow” it on and explain to me how your deluded brain thought how I blew it…

    HAHA you are full of S*&$.

    Reply
  45. why would I want “high level advice” from an idiot who makes s*^& up.
    Like lying and accusing people of saying things they never said, you can sick you “high level advice” you know where

    Reply
  46. “HAHA you are full of S*&$.”

    Comment by realist on 22 September 2010:

    “Go back to school, listen this time, get a decent job (one that pays at least the average wage) and then buy what you can afford”

    Biker whoever told you that you can afford a home on the average wage was lying to you.

    don’t insult people based on your ‘perception” of them, i think it has been proven without fault that it is bordering on impossible for the average person to buy a home on the same terms you did when you purcahsed yours in the 60’s and 70’s heck even up until the late 90’s.

    Casting dispersions on what you think the drive and character of a ‘renter’ would be only belies your intelligence.

    Comment by Biker on 22 September 2010:

    “…whoever told you that you can afford a home on the average wage was lying to you…”

    Then rent into perpetuity. Accept it and move forward.
    Bleat not.

    Comment by Steve on 22 September 2010:

    No don’t except it

    BTW, when there is one, it’s WOMAN.
    When there are two or more, it’s WOMEN.

    As usual, no charge for helping you with this foreign language… .

    Hums “You’ve Got A Friend”… . ;)

    Reply
  47. “…why would I want “high level advice” from an idiot who makes s*^& up.”

    My guess is that this has been your response since you first opened your mouth. Bet the first thing you ever said was “Shut the F*%# up, Mum!”
    Teachers were next, I guess. More morons. Now it’s FHBs, investors, banks, governments, the system… . _Everyone_ is against you, son.

    EXCEPT me.

    Hums “You’ve Got A Friend”… . ;)

    Reply
  48. Comment by Steve on 22 September 2010:

    HAHA I was correct wasn’t I
    You are unbelievable.
    You are good at making assumptions very good…

    Show me the other sites I have posted on…
    Why couldn’t you do that?????

    No proof whatsoever

    What post did I “blow” it on and explain to me how your deluded brain thought how I blew it…

    HAHA you are full of S*&$.

    I have no proof, none what so ever.. but I have a suspicion that Ned S and Biker are the same person.. Ultimately.. I don’t care..

    There was an interesting post here, a week or so ago.. very “Biker” like in it’s content.. Look Neddiee blah blah blah blah….. however it was from Ned S..

    Kind of makes one think that, if I am right, and I may not be, that someone did not double check the name prior to posting…

    But I will re confirm… I don’t care… I really don’t… It is obvious Biker is a forum troll that views and comments on multiple forums..which is his right..good luck to him, If he wishes to do that under multiple personalities.. good luck to him on that too…

    Stillgotshoeson
    September 23, 2010
    Reply
  49. Did you get the 2nd part of the 2nd question

    Explain to me how you thought I blew it???

    Reply
  50. “It is obvious Biker is a forum troll that views and comments on multiple forums.”

    “that”? Surely you mean “who”?*

    Not my post, Shoes. Don’t know whose. :D

    * Happy to help you too, son. ;)

    Reply
  51. Well no, I meant “that” I would have used “whom” if that is what I wanted to say… however I wanted to and meant to and so used “that” so there ;)

    Stillgotshoeson
    September 23, 2010
    Reply
  52. I think they are 2 separate people Shoeson
    I think Ned is just the Yes man,
    They have both been on here for a while Ned probably just picks up Bikers habits that’s all.

    It will be interesting to see what Realist has to say about this if she reads it, it would probably confirm what she already knows, that Biker is a Bulls*^& artist who makes S*$% up

    Reply
  53. IP addresses would answer it in 10 seconds flat.. Maybe Dan Denning can verify IP address of everyone…

    Even if using 2 different internet connections the IP’s will show same adress even if they are different..

    Someone in Queensland is not going to have a WA IP address.. but like I said.. I don’t care…

    Stillgotshoeson
    September 23, 2010
    Reply
  54. Good it would prove how much of a halfwit Biker is if can do that.

    Reply
  55. Gawd, TWO illiterates. :D

    “Bulls*^& artist who makes S*$% up”

    Two years of this and it hasn’t occurred to you that it’s a clear indication that you’re not simply illiterate, but very, very angry?

    “I think they are 2 separate people Shoeson”

    Brilliant observation. Finally, after 24 months of _drivel_ (listen to the ‘v’ sound, Steven) you’ve got one right. :D

    Reply
  56. “…but like I said.. I don’t care… ”

    Funniest thing you’ve ever said here, Shoes. ;)

    Reply
  57. Biker are you going to explain to me how you think I blew it?
    Or are you going to avoid the question?

    Reply
  58. Leme guess, there are no sexual predators on DR as the requisite grooming is not happening. There’s always a silver lining :)

    Reply
  59. I think asking for the IP address for me and Realist is the easiest option!

    To prove Biker has no credibility whatsoever

    Reply
  60. Do I have to teach you READING as well as SPELLING, Steven?
    Go back and read my post.

    You’ve also blown the first thing you’ve actually got right here:
    “Good it would prove how much of a halfwit Biker is if can do that.”

    You’ve decided Shoes is right… I’m Ned!~

    You haven’t thanked me for your rescue, either, ingrate!!~ :D

    Reply
  61. You can dribble on as much as you want…

    All we need to do is ask if the IP address for me and Realist is the same
    We can do it the easy way that’s all

    Reply
  62. President Dale: Why can’t we work out our differences? Why can’t we work things out? Little people, why can’t we all just get along?

    Mars Attacks 1996

    Reply
  63. I’m Ned, I’m Ned
    and now I’m off to bed
    For Shoes’ decree that Ned is me
    Has gone to poor Steve’s head.

    He thinks IP
    is somehow urinary
    But who’s to quibble at Shoeson’s dribble
    Not me, not me!!

    And that’s your lot for today, Boys.
    You have _potential_, but it’s 3:30… .

    Reply
  64. Comment by bearamundi on 23 September 2010:

    President Dale: Why can’t we work out our differences? Why can’t we work things out? Little people, why can’t we all just get along?

    Whilst I generally ignore him now, it is fun to poke him with a stick every so often…

    Stillgotshoeson
    September 23, 2010
    Reply
  65. Its good to see you use the art-form of humour to try to hide behind your shame Biker and now that you may be exposed for being the fraud that you are, I also note that when the going gets tough, the tough get going (to bed)
    Good to see that you have still got a backbone Biker
    Because if we can get Realist’s and my IP addresses you will well and truly be exposed for the fraud that you are

    Sweet dreams Princess

    Reply
  66. “Whilst I generally ignore him now, it is fun to poke him with a stick every so often…”

    Yes, I agree Shoes. Good fun rattling your cage. See your dentist about grinding those molars, son.

    That explains why Shoes is ignoring you, Ned. Ned’R’Us… . :D

    *Giggle*

    Reply
  67. Martian Translator Device: All green of skin… 800 centuries ago, their bodily fluids include the birth of half-breeds. For the fundamental truth self-determination of the cosmos, for dark is the suede that mows like a harvest.
    General Decker: What the hell does that mean?

    Yeah, I know Shoes.

    Reply
  68. “Sweet dreams Princess”

    Ahh, you’re back in your single-mum persona, I see.

    Reply
  69. Having too much fun ROFLMAO, fellas.

    Look, you dipwits are all up beyond midnight dragging this on and on…
    and my missus wants to know why I’m up here chortling.

    Why take y’selves so seriously? OK, I confess “I AM NED!”

    There, Shoes was right. You were wrong again, Steve. Sorry… . :(

    Reply
  70. Comment by Biker Pete on 23 September 2010:

    That explains why Shoes is ignoring you, Ned. Ned’R’Us… . :D

    Ignoring Ned? Did not realise I have been asked anything specific by Ned.. must have overlooked or missed it..

    Stillgotshoeson
    September 23, 2010
    Reply
  71. Say goodnight Biker

    Reply
  72. As Biker Ned, then, I must ask you:

    “Is the caravan fully loaded with musical fruit yet?!~”

    Reply
  73. Comment by Biker Pete on 23 September 2010:

    Having too much fun ROFLMAO, fellas.

    Look, you dipwits are all up beyond midnight dragging this on and on…
    and my missus wants to know why I’m up here chortling.

    Why take y’selves so seriously? OK, I confess “I AM NED!”

    There, Shoes was right. You were wrong again, Steve. Sorry… .

    Still don’t care…..

    Stillgotshoeson
    September 23, 2010
    Reply
  74. “Say goodnight Biker”

    And spoil your post-midnight fun? Surely we can go on for a spell yet?!~

    *Chortle*

    Reply
  75. Comment by Biker on 23 September 2010:

    As Biker Ned, then, I must ask you:

    “Is the caravan fully loaded with musical fruit yet?!~”

    Nope…

    Stillgotshoeson
    September 23, 2010
    Reply
  76. But you’re talking to me again, Shoes.

    No more of that silly ‘tell-your-father-to pass-the-toast’ nonsense.

    Now, I suppose you’ll lapse into Hush Puppy mode again. Oh dear… ; :(

    Reply
  77. Can we stick to the economic comment gentlemen. This school yard stuff is a bit pathetic.

    Reply
  78. Ned, sorry about this, but Shoes insisted I was you… and he then convinced Steve. They’re _so_ persuasive (and their stuff is _always_ correct) so I suddenly realised they must be right _again._

    Really humid here in the United States of WAQLD.

    Tried to be helpful, kind, considerate and thoughtful to represent you… and I must have somehow succeeded, although I’ve gone back through my posts… and I can’t see where. This out-of-body experience was a good laugh, though… . :D

    Reply
  79. Comment by smallcap on 23 September 2010:

    Can we stick to the economic comment gentlemen. This school yard stuff is a bit pathetic.

    Looks like Gold is going to break $1300 this week…

    Very good chance of 2.5 rate rises still to come this year.. 2 of .25% from the RBA and a .1% or .15% from the banks themselves..

    Stillgotshoeson
    September 23, 2010
    Reply
  80. “Can we stick to the economic comment gentlemen. This school yard stuff is a bit pathetic.”

    A BIT pathetic?!~

    Let’s see, where did it start? Ah, yes:

    Steve: “Just as you deserve what you get for being a greedy self centred **** with no social values, not giving a f&*% about your fellow countrymen
    …morons not saying “No that’s too much to pay for that S*%&hole… you can all get stuffed… I couldn’t care less what happens to you both.”

    But, as you can see, it’s past 12:30 am… . These guys DO care.
    They’ll _love_ red-flagging the bulls. :D

    10:30 pm here. Zzzzzz…

    Reply
  81. Nice to see everyone playing together happily as usual! ;)

    There aren’t many things in this world I’m sure of. But one of them is that Biker and Ned are different people. If anyone can suggest an iron clad way to prove that one way or the other, I’m more than happy to consider placing a bet on it. A BIG one even!

    One thought before we all start considering ways to seperate gamblers from their loot though: I make spelling mistakes fairly regularly. Biker doesn’t. :)

    Reply
  82. “I make spelling mistakes fairly regularly. Biker doesn’t. :)”

    How would they _know,_ Ned?!!!~
    (You can probably hear me _screaming_ with laughter…!! :D )

    Reply
  83. I see Shoes believes gold will hit my prediction of $1300 this week, Ned… .

    (Tamara calls. It’s another day. ;) )

    Reply
  84. “it’s different here, here, here, and here and over there there and there and yonder and…..”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-primer-5-role-demographics-canada%E2%80%99s-coming-housing-bust

    Reply
  85. I told you it was the bloody baby boomers “clogging up” bloody everything. They should just bloody well hurry up and do us all a bloody big favour and just drop….

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/23/3019427.htm

    Reply
  86. And after those two edifying thoughts, a little song to cheer everyone up:

    Hang down your head, Tom Dooley
    Hang down your head and cry
    Hang down your head, Tom Dooley
    Poor boy, you’re bound to die

    :)

    Reply
  87. Damn…!! In the list of Steve’s pet hates, I forgot Baby Boomers… ! ;)

    Never mind, we have it on good authority that interest rates are to rise three times in the next three months. _That_ will finish those pesky boomers off… . :D

    Reply

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