Comments on: Warren Buffett Travels to Europe to Seek Out Better Investments http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/warren-buffett-travels-to-europe-2/2008/05/27/ An independent perspective on the Australian and global investment markets Sat, 21 Nov 2009 17:27:32 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8 hourly 1 By: Coffee Addict http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/warren-buffett-travels-to-europe-2/2008/05/27/comment-page-1/#comment-24521 Coffee Addict Wed, 28 May 2008 04:58:53 +0000 http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/?p=2758#comment-24521 ING (and other institutions) state publicly that the share investments are likely to earn single returns this year. The institution’s version of being optimistically bearish I suppose. Big funds like ING do tend to lead market thinking more than a few odd contrarians (who post around here). So what? Well if your typical fund manager or "mum/dad" investor now truly believes they will only earn bank interest from a share portfolio what will they do? Sell shares and open less risky term deposits! On masse, this thinking could cause a run of a magnitude which exceeds the 20% (or so) correction needed to get PE ratios down to a breathable level. So get ready for a bear run. *** (I expect that Warren Buffett is exploring his options and shifting the portfolio to accommodate alternative economic scenarios, and I hear he is not into resources. The pegs under everything at the moment are India, China and Russia but the cost of energy and finance will significantly impact growth in these (and many other) countries. Russia will do well out of energy but all India and China won't do well at all. The Aussie Dollar ain’t too bad at the moment either as increased mining volumes and a temporary la Niña will tend to counter any drop in resource prices over the next few years.) ING (and other institutions) state publicly that the share investments are likely to earn single returns this year. The institution’s version of being optimistically bearish I suppose.
Big funds like ING do tend to lead market thinking more than a few odd contrarians (who post around here). So what? Well if your typical fund manager or "mum/dad" investor now truly believes they will only earn bank interest from a share portfolio what will they do? Sell shares and open less risky term deposits! On masse, this thinking could cause a run of a magnitude which exceeds the 20% (or so) correction needed to get PE ratios down to a breathable level. So get ready for a bear run.
*** (I expect that Warren Buffett is exploring his options and shifting the portfolio to accommodate alternative economic scenarios, and I hear he is not into resources. The pegs under everything at the moment are India, China and Russia but the cost of energy and finance will significantly impact growth in these (and many other) countries. Russia will do well out of energy but all India and China won't do well at all. The Aussie Dollar ain’t too bad at the moment either as increased mining volumes and a temporary la Niña will tend to counter any drop in resource prices over the next few years.)

]]> By: Coffee Addict http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/warren-buffett-travels-to-europe-2/2008/05/27/comment-page-1/#comment-24396 Coffee Addict Tue, 27 May 2008 05:19:32 +0000 http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/?p=2758#comment-24396 ING (and other institutions) state publicly that the share investments are likely to earn single returns this year. The institution’s version of being optimistically bearish I suppose. Big funds like ING do tend to lead market thinking more than a few odd contrarians (who post around here). So what? Well if your typical fund manager or "mum/dad" investor now truly believes they will only earn bank interest from a share portfolio what will they do? Sell shares and open less risky term deposits! On masse, this thinking could cause a run of a magnitude which exceeds the 20% (or so) correction needed to get PE ratios down to a breathable level. So get ready for a bear run. *** (I expect that Warren Buffett is exploring his options and shifting the portfolio to accommodate alternative economic scenarios. The pegs under everything at the moment are India, China and Russia but the cost of energy and finance will significantly impact growth in these (and many other) countries. Russia will do well out of energy but all India and China won't do well at all. The Aussie Dollar ain’t too bad at the moment either as increased mining volumes and a temporary la Niña will tend to counter any drop in resource prices over the next few years.) ING (and other institutions) state publicly that the share investments are likely to earn single returns this year. The institution’s version of being optimistically bearish I suppose.

Big funds like ING do tend to lead market thinking more than a few odd contrarians (who post around here). So what? Well if your typical fund manager or "mum/dad" investor now truly believes they will only earn bank interest from a share portfolio what will they do? Sell shares and open less risky term deposits! On masse, this thinking could cause a run of a magnitude which exceeds the 20% (or so) correction needed to get PE ratios down to a breathable level. So get ready for a bear run.

*** (I expect that Warren Buffett is exploring his options and shifting the portfolio to accommodate alternative economic scenarios. The pegs under everything at the moment are India, China and Russia but the cost of energy and finance will significantly impact growth in these (and many other) countries. Russia will do well out of energy but all India and China won't do well at all. The Aussie Dollar ain’t too bad at the moment either as increased mining volumes and a temporary la Niña will tend to counter any drop in resource prices over the next few years.)

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