There's a fair chance the RBA will drop rates again when they next meet in February. After reading Glenn Stevens' last statement, we got the impression that he really didn't want to cut rates at all...but he did so to take pressure off the Australian dollar. And then the dollar rallied because he sounded like he was done cutting...
Steven's is far too sober and responsible to be a world class central banker. If he wants a weaker Australian dollar, he's got to earn it. He needs to start targeting iron ore prices or something similarly idiotic. Only then will Australia's creditors start to wonder whether they should keep lending at such a high price.
Because they're not too bothered by the fact that Australia keeps spending more than it earns, and have done, with ever greater voracity, since the mid-1970s. The chart below illustrates the over-consumption nicely.
It shows Australia's current account, which is in deficit. It's a combination of the balance of trade and Australia's net income payments to the rest of the world (built up over the years resulting from overconsumption...the trade deficit).
There's nothing particularly wrong with a bit of over-consumption, especially if you need to buy income producing capital goods on credit. But that's clearly not happening in Australia. As you can see from the chart, Australia's financial position has become worse over the decades. And at the same time, the Australian dollar gets stronger!
But only if you measure it against other dud currencies. Measured against a wealth preserver like gold, the Aussie dollar is not as strong as you think.
Aussie Dollar - Not as Strong as You Think
So do what the central bankers want you to do. Spend your dollars. But not on stuff...buy gold!
Regards,
Dan Denning
for The Daily Reckoning Australia
From the Archives...
Will Lower Interest Rates Impact Australia in 2013?
7-12-2012 - Greg Canavan
Is the Australian Economy in Recession?
6-12-2012 - Greg Canavan
US Debt: Why America May Need a Bail Out by the IMF
5-12-2012 - Bill Bonner
If Profits are Falling Why are Stocks Rising?
4-12-2012 - Dan Denning
The Frontier Way
3-12-2012 - Dan Denning
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About the Author
Dan Denning is the author of 2005's best-selling The Bull Hunter (John Wiley & Sons). He began his financial publishing career in 1997 and has covered financial markets form Baltimore, Paris, London and, beginning in 2005 Melbourne. He’s the editor of The Daily Reckoning Australia and the Publisher of Port Phillip Publishing.
Comment by Ross on 14 December 2012:
Tuck this away for when the 1890's moment comes....
http://www.bankingday.com/nl06_news_selected.php?act=2&stream=1&selkey=14171&hlc=2&hlw=
Comment by Ross on 14 December 2012:
Deputy chairman of the COAG Reform Council, Greg Craven said that Australia currently has the worst vertical fiscal imbalance of any nation in the world. The Australian.
He was defending COAG at the time against those that want it liquidated but that is when you get the best stray cats isn't it?