What’s going on in Iran? When the old guard starts shooting the young people, that’s not a favorable sign for the long term.
Last time Iran had a revolution, in 1979, it ushered in turmoil in the oil (and gold) markets for several years. Of course, the invasion by Iraq in 1980, and subsequent war, had something to do with it as well.
After 30 years, the Iranian theocracy – and well-connected family and friends – has pretty much taken over that nation’s economy. Most everything that’s worth owning – oil facilities, banks, industrial facilities, etc. – has some ‘revolutionary’ connection. And these folks are not going to walk away from it without a fight.
There are clearly a series of major disconnects within Iranian society. Young versus old, middle-class versus theocrat, reformer versus revolutionary. And then there’s the oil problem. Mr. Depletion and Ms. Rust.
Iran is suffering from its own version of Peak Oil. Iranian net exports of oil are falling. Iran’s oil infrastructure is aging. According to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the trend is that Iran will be exporting ZERO oil by 2014, which is a mere five years from now. That means almost no serious money will be coming in for the Iranian leadership and government.
So if you think that they’re rioting in the streets of Iran now, just wait awhile. Iran is headed for national insolvency and penury. It’ll get even more exciting. Then again, the Iranians may have nuclear weapons. Pretty depressing, huh? Better buy that gold while you can.
for The Daily Reckoning Australia