The Long COVID Decade
Hannah Davis can’t think.
A thought emerges. The fog swallows it.
She spent much of 2020 like this, working for University College London.
Her goal: Unravelling the symptoms of ‘long COVID’.
Davis — a 32-year-old who specialises in machine learning and AI — is finding it quite the task.
Because she herself is a long COVID sufferer.
She now has trouble reading simple text messages.
Let alone interpreting brain scans.
Hannah Davis has joined a team of similarly ill long COVID scientists and researchers using themselves as guinea pigs. To try and ‘understand what was happening with our own bodies’.
She contracted COVID-19 on 25 March 2020.
As a healthy young person, she expected a full recovery.
She’d ride out the mild respiratory symptoms…and continue her work.
But that recovery never came.
Today Davis can’t drive, can’t lift things, has odd pains.
She can only work in 30-minute bursts.
‘My life is a bit of a mess,’ she told Agence France-Presse.
Despite all that, her team’s findings are now informing global policymakers.
It’s vital work.
At the time of writing, nearly 2.3 million have died of the virus worldwide.
But there are 105 million global cases and counting.
(Those numbers will be higher by the time you read this.)
So, how many long COVID victims might there be in the next decade?
Impossible to say. But with survival rates so high, we know the number could be astronomical.
The symptoms are as varied as they are baffling.
And they can emerge — out of nowhere — months after you’re technically ‘virus-free’:
- Lasting damage to heart and lungs
- Gastrointestinal problems
- Persistent cough
- Loss of appetite
- Dysautonomia — a disorder of the nervous system
- Skin lesions
- Extreme fatigue
- Loss of taste
- Loss of vision
- Sjogren’s syndrome
- Multiple neurological symptoms including loss of memory
- Post exertional malaise, including slurred speech and a heavy feeling in the arms and legs
Those are only some of the symptoms of COVID ‘long haulers’ that we know about, just one year in.
Now, this is not a medical paper…
The topic of discussion here is your FINANCIAL health and wellbeing.
And from that perspective…
We’re all ‘long haulers’ now…
Hi, my name’s Nick Hubble. I’m the managing editor of Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence Australia.
Like Hannah and her team, unravelling the debilitating medical symptoms long after the initial infection is cleared…
…what we’re going to do below is look at the many ways — some obvious…some scary, unexpected and baffling — that your family wealth will be impacted by this pandemic for years to come.
Your retirement: What’s the overall damage?
When will COVID finally infect the stock market?
The ASX soared into 2021, hitting an 11-month peak.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 was hitting new highs in February.
The problem is this…
Stocks around the world were ALREADY in a terminal phase of overvaluation BEFORE the virus spread from Wuhan.
This exercise in denial cannot last forever.
And with superannuation funds on track to make up a crazy 60% of the Australian share market, your retirement’s now at the mercy of stock market long COVID.
‘The pandemic has caused a dramatic shift in people’s ambient emotions. Those who are in or near retirement could pay a high price.’
— The Wall Street Journal
More than perhaps any other nation in the world.
In 2020, more than $33.5 billion was drained from super accounts under COVID-19 hardship provisions.
Over 20,000 applications A DAY since last April.
The ‘save and forget about it’ mentality is over. People have been reminded it’s real wealth…YOUR wealth…parked into that giant system.
And it can be stripped away very quickly, in vast quantities, if stock markets turn south.
If the initial wave blasted hundreds of billions from the ASX in mere weeks, what will the lasting effects be?
How far could stocks fall when reality finally asserts itself?
How much will you have to readjust your golden years based on a substantially diminished retirement pot?
Don’t let emotions get the better of you.
There is a very clear course of action here, based on historical precedent. You just need to have the conviction and foresight to do it now…
Your real estate interests…
Virus? What virus?
Listen to the property press and your real estate investments — residential and commercial — are going to soar in the next few years.
Listings, clearances and prices are all on the up in early 2021. Buyers and sellers are making up for lost time. Expats are coming back and are on the prowl. Federal and state stimulus measures will keep the gravy train rolling.
Our question is…
How long can all that go on?
Like stocks, this is a bubble that, in a sane world, should have burst well before the virus.
Regulators and policymakers have been using a cocktail of drugs for years to stop prices falling — interest rate cuts, tax incentives, and other measures to boost construction.
Post COVID, they switched to a new set of meds: Bans on evicting tenants, mortgage freezes, foreclosure assistance and other temporary stop-gaps.
‘Delinquencies are rising and will rise further, with investment properties most at risk.’
— AMP Capital chief Shane Oliver
What’s left in the medical cabinet? The answer is nothing. It’s bare.
Our 28-year recession-free run was because of immigration. This helped goose GDP — and the property market — by growing the economy with more people…instead of true growth via productivity.
That engine is now turned off. Mothballed. Potentially for much of this decade.
The froth you’re seeing in the property market right now is temporary.
You need to be preparing for the challenges…and opportunities…in Australia’s post-COVID real estate landscape…
Your business interests…
The insolvency tsunami will continue.
Hundreds of thousands of small Australian businesses, now reliant on government support, will eventually succumb. Many already have.
JobKeeper is about to end. New bankruptcy laws kicked in at the start of 2021 — meaning employers can no longer hibernate in future lockdowns (and future lockdowns are coming…).
Insolvency safe-haven rules no longer exist. If your outstanding debts reach $10,000 this year, the creditors can come knocking.
‘We are definitely going to see an increase in insolvencies,’ says CreditorWatch chief executive Patrick Coghlan. ‘I think there could be a March cliff.’
But there are decisions you can make now to ensure you — and, if applicable, your employees and customers — are still there when normality returns…
But there’s also something I’ve been personally thinking about — having had a daughter in January 2020…
What happens now to your kids/grandkids…?
The under-40s are bearing the financial brunt right now.
But the really young ones will come of age in the Long COVID Decade.
How will it shape them? What are the dangers, and opportunities, that await them? How can you help them?
Generation COVID (Gen C) is what they’re already being called. The first generation to grow up through a crisis like this since the Second World War.
The easy ride Gen Z, Gen Y and Gen X had here in Australia is over.
According to new research by Bank of America, Gen C will be the only generation to believe that all problems can be solved ‘through fiscal stimulus and free government money.’
That doesn’t sound to me like a healthy worldview for my daughter to have…
So, we’ve been looking deep into this…
And, if they’re open to it, there IS a saving and investment strategy and mindset your kids and grandkids can adopt now to actually help you prosper in this new world…
And if employment is a concern, there are existing industries that should flourish and new ones that will bloom in the post-pandemic era.
And then there’s…
Your liberty and freedom…
Contact tracing…curfews…mandatory business closures…movement restrictions…fines for going to the beach…mandatory facemasks…millions put on house arrest at the whim of politicians…
Incredible how fast the unthinkable becomes normal. And simply accepted as a necessary part of life.
Predictably, many governments are now using COVID-19 as a pretext to push through all kinds of pre-existing agendas.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m no ‘anti-vax’ campaigner. I didn’t fervently support the lockdowns. But neither did I actively oppose them. Like most Aussies, I watched and followed the rules wherever it was reasonable.
And yes, this new strategy of short, sharp lockdowns whenever there is an outbreak seems to be keeping the virus at bay for now.
‘The bubonic plague killed feudalism. COVID-19 will entrench it.’
— Foreign Policy
But don’t get complacent. Do not expect that it’s all behind you.
Sadly, the symptoms here could linger for longer than just one decade…
As the most recent developments show, we have not seen the last of this.
Freedom is a fragile thing. And the global nanny state is now morphing into something else entirely…
It’s not kooky or unpatriotic to be wary of this. And to take precautions…
Finally, let’s address one of the big reasons we invest in the first place:
Your ambitions for wealth expansion…
So…is this it? Must you let all those go now?
Is the modus operandi for the rest of your investing life ‘just don’t lose money’?
It absolutely should not be.
Since COVID fanned out across the world, fundamentals and common sense have gone out the window.
But there are some key things you can count on in the years ahead: Monetary intervention on an epic scale…debt crises and defaults…and geopolitical instability not seen since the last world war.
These conditions can actually provide SPECTACULAR ways to expand wealth, if you’re nimble and know how to sniff them out…
Investors can always find a way to profit.
It doesn’t matter how bad things get.
The right stocks went up during the Great Depression. The same will happen in the decade ahead. You just need to know which stocks.
The initial pandemic disruption of 2020 has already created some tantalising buys for 2021 and beyond. And not just in oversold stocks.
Whole new avenues for wealth building, which never existed before we knew the word ‘COVID’, are arising.
We’ll touch on some of those. But one key rule before going for such big gains in times like these is to make sure you’re robust FIRST. First priority, obviously, is survival. Once you have this assured, with defensive and lower-risk strategies tailored to a post-pandemic climate…THEN you can feel comfortable making high-risk bets, which can be immensely profitable.
One thing you can be assured of: This climate is not going to change anytime soon…
‘Is this now me forever?’
— long COVID sufferer Eleanor Morgan
A year in, seasoned professionals remain confused about this totally new disease.
The bizarre effects — initial and ongoing — go beyond anything seen from other viral infections.
‘It seems to strike so many systems,’ says Maya Rao, a New York nephrologist.
This same principle is going to apply to the world of investing, retirement, money and economics from here on.
It’s going to run its course through multiple systems in the years to come…
A series of profound system-changes:
‘Cubed-off’ spectators watch a French Open
tennis match in Paris.
Image source: CNN
The superannuation system.
The Australian political system.
The stock market system.
The real estate system.
The employment system.
The education system.
The trade system.
The international travel system.
The global financial system.
The geopolitical system.
Some of these systems have already been profoundly compromised.
Others are yet to see the post-viral effects.
But these effects are coming.
Perhaps the most important thing you can do right now is try and predict how all these symptoms are going to manifest long term.
Then get a good idea where Australia fits in the post-pandemic puzzle.
(You might be shocked at what we’ve uncovered here. There is a very good chance we’re going to be a victim of our own early success during this pandemic. And that, over the course of this decade, Australia will actually LAG other nations in emerging from its economic slowdown.
I know that might be hard to stomach given everything you’re being told about us doing so well. But this is data you need to see and face up to…)
And then, finally, you need to work out some ways to inoculate your personal wealth now from what we face in the rest of the 2020s.
There are certain specific countries — and stock indexes — where your money may work much harder for you this decade than if it was just parked in the ASX. If you’re willing to set up an international share account — and can tolerate exchange rate risk — you could benefit from gaining exposure to these indexes as soon as possible.
One such index is at the top of my radar right now (and not just because I happen to have recently moved there with my wife and child…).
I’ve just made a shortlist of eight stocks there that I believe could do spectacularly well in the coming years.
And let’s say you believe the gold price is going to be significantly higher over the coming years.
You’re not alone here.
The US dollar is likely to struggle to hold its value once the financial and economic damage of COVID-19 is priced in.
A lot of that economic damage is still deeply uncertain, just like the long-term consequences for those who caught COVID-19.
Once the world realises just how much economic damage it took to try and keep the virus at bay, as well as the lack of a true recovery, the US dollar will tumble.
And the current gold bull market could go to a new level entirely…perhaps lasting for much of this decade.
But let’s assume you’re smart enough to already know this…
Did you ALSO know that, as an Australian, you’re actually in a really privileged position over the next five years as a gold investor? It’s to do with the direction of the Aussie dollar’s value. And your window for buying is right now.
But I’m not just talking about increasing your physical gold position.
Or even targeting individual gold mining stocks, which can leverage gold’s performance for greater gains (or losses).
I’ve found you an intriguing way to make the absolute most from gold during the Long COVID Decade…
Also, did you know there is an emergent way to restructure your income for the post-pandemic world that gives you more freedom…and a better chance at a lower-cost retirement? Even if we have a big stock market crash this year or next?
I strongly encourage you to consider this.
I ALSO strongly urge you to consider selling all your stocks in what I believe could be one of the biggest slump sectors of the next two years.
2020 tore many of the world’s established business models — and their stocks — to shreds.
The oil price went negative, the travel industry imploded, hotels and cruise ships were scuppered, restaurants hammered, high streets deserted and many retailers may never recover.
But this sector, I believe, faces a similarly dire outcome.
It hasn’t happened yet. I recommend you sell all your stocks in this sector before it does.
And then there is tax. Tax is boring. And yet, this is probably one of the most potent and useful predictions we have for you.
A huge financial long COVID symptom will be the government clamouring for more of your tax dollars. As tax revenue fails to recover in the long COVID world, Canberra will be desperately chasing new sources.
That is pretty much a given.
But there ARE strategies you can put in place now to protect your wealth as the door slams shut behind other taxpayers with cries of ‘fair taxes’, ‘tax the rich’ and ‘inequality’…
The point is, contrary to how it might feel, your back is not against the wall.
YOU HAVE OPTIONS
And I’d like to share them with you here.
Viruses are enigmatic yet well-studied by science.
And COVID-19, in just one year, has become perhaps the most collectively studied virus in history.
Figuring out how one-in-100-year pandemics impact wealth?
There aren’t many great minds working on that for you at present.
I’m pretty sure we are the first in that regard.
As I’ve said, my name is Nick Hubble, and I’m the chief investment strategist and managing editor of Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence Australia.
For many, Jim Rickards needs no introduction.
He’s the mysterious name that’s popped up at the biggest historical turning points of the last 40 years.
From aiding the Carter administration as it negotiated the Iran hostage crisis in 1980, to helping the Fed avoid global financial collapse by winding down Long-Term Capital Management…
…getting tapped by the CIA to spearhead counter-terrorism efforts after 9/11, to warning the US Treasury of the subprime collapse several years before it happened (that time he was ignored)…
For decades, Jim Rickards has been the cool-headed analyst called on to wargame what happens next while all the world seems to be going berserk.
He’s been THE GO-TO GUY.
As such, there are few on the planet right now better suited to guide you on this topic.
So, first and foremost, I’m going to strongly urge you to read Jim Rickards’ new book.
‘Whether or not you buy his views on the fragility of the current world monetary order, if you like tales of real life international intrigue you’ll love anything by Jim Rickards.’
It’s his seventh. But without doubt, it’s his most important. Because this really will be the defining topic of the rest of your financial life.
And the decisions you make in relation to it now will define how you live the rest of your life…and the financial legacy you leave behind.
That may sound histrionic or Churchillian.
But it’s the truth.
This book needs to go right to the top of your reading list.
It’s called THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION: WINNERS AND LOSERS IN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLD.
And I’m going to show you how to access your personal copy at the conclusion of this essay.
It’s the only definitive wealth survival guide I’m aware of in publication for what we call ‘the Long COVID Decade’.
‘A blend of alarmism, intrigue, and solid financial advice. Fans of Rickards will know just what to expect.’
— Kirkus Reviews
Global markets are on a high with the rollout of two COVID-19 vaccines.
‘There is the anticipation that some of the chaos that has resulted from the pandemic is going to subside (now that) they are beginning to disperse the vaccine in some parts of the world,’ claims Jeffrey Sica, founder of Circle Squared Alternative Investments.
But the truth is this…
Even if we achieve a perfect global rollout (a big ‘if’), the global economy is entering its own version of long COVID.
There will be countless millions of sufferers worldwide.
But there will also be smart beneficiaries…
THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION: WINNERS AND LOSERS IN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLD is written with the express goal of ensuring you fall into the latter category.
I’ll tell you more about Jim Rickards — and why he is uniquely qualified to write such a book — shortly.
But it’s important to point out that neither Jim nor I are epidemiologists.
‘If policy makers won’t use this plan to save the economy, you can use it yourself to preserve wealth and prosper in a post-pandemic world.’
— Jim Rickards in
The New Great Depression
We’re not, however, intimidated by science. Nor scientists either, like so many politicians and policymakers around the world have proven to be.
Perhaps two degrees from the John Hopkins University immunised Jim from academic angst in explaining how natural science and economics intersect.
And how this virus will likely haunt your wealth for the next quarter-century.
The purpose of this book is to make sure you’re not blindsided by what’s to come.
You will know in advance what ‘symptoms’ to expect.
We even have a bonus chapter explaining how they’ll manifest in Australia specifically.
This chapter is designed to interpret Jim Rickards’ analysis and predictions for Australian readers and investors specifically.
There are some important add-ons from what’s in Jim’s book.
We look at threats to the superannuation system…the effects of collapse of the US dollar’s value…the further impacts in the coming years of Australia’s collision course with China…how to try and make sure your retirement is not at the mercy of future tax grabs…and much more.
These are issues that need to be thought about carefully and urgently.
Then there is the fact that Australia hasn’t really had the pandemic…yet. I don’t mean to sound ominous. But as I lay out for you, what we saw recently in New South Wales and Victoria could well become the NORM during the Long COVID Decade…
You’ll get specific advice. Precautions to put in place to avoid being caught in these symptoms’ downdraft.
Whether or not you follow this advice is up to you.
In the book itself, you’ll be walked through the three most likely scenarios for how COVID-19 progresses from here globally.
Unfortunately — despite multiple vaccine campaigns getting underway in many countries — the most dangerous is scenario two.
And that’s where Jim believes we’re heading in 2021…with what he says will be ‘great horror to come’…
From there, you’ll get Jim Rickards’ predictive analytic view for all asset markets for the rest of 2021 and 2022.
Stocks will NOT bottom out…bonds will keep rallying…and interest rates will fall even lower (yes, that’s possible).
But it’s his seven further analytic forecasts that you really need to come to grips with ASAP…
Based on this outlook, Jim then provides a new six-component, precise portfolio allocation based on the above forecasts.
This allocation fuses complexity theory, Bayes’ theorem, historical data, and forecasting of post-pandemic psychology.
As you’ll see in the book, this portfolio is not for day traders.
It can’t tell you what will happen tomorrow or next week.
It’s designed to get you ahead of the markets long term, during the entire Long COVID Decade.
It divides your investable assets into a 30%, 10%, 20%, 20%, 10% and 10% split. In THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION: WINNERS AND LOSERS IN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLD, you’ll find out exactly what this mix is…and how it offers wealth preservation AND upside potential.
As Jim says in the book: ‘In an age of pandemic, depression, riots, and global threats, that’s as good as it gets.’
Jim also looks at one-in-100-year wealth opportunities that might come in the Long COVID Decade.
He paints a picture of where things will stand in the new economic order — and provides specific direction on how to actually prosper in the post-pandemic world. This is not as difficult as it seems; rigorous analysis and early action are the keys.
Hugo Stinnes, a German industrialist, made a fortune during the worst stage of the Weimar hyperinflation in the early 1920s.
He borrowed in Reichsmarks and bought hard assets. The assets soared in value while the currency collapsed. He then repaid the loans in worthless Reichsmarks and kept the assets.
Joseph P Kennedy, father of President John F Kennedy, made his fortune during the 1929 crash.
These cases show that money can be made even during the darkest periods in market history.
It requires accurate forecasting, anticipating government’s policy response, and nimbly investing ahead of the chaos. THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION will show you strategies on how to do this.
And Jim specifically names three particular points of opportunity to look out for in the Long COVID Decade.
An underlying message is this…
Investing can be straightforward — even in times of great uncertainty — if you can foresee the policy response to a crisis.
It also helps to be able to anticipate things that most others can’t.
That’s how you REALLY grow and preserve wealth as an investor.
This is going to be one heck of a wild-card decade.
So, the value in getting things right — when others never saw it coming — is magnified.
And Jim Rickards has gotten so many big calls right.
The man who saw…
Most recently, it was the ‘Great Reset’.
Heard about that?
Like the poor, the elites who seek to ‘look after’ us will always be with us.
Their latest attempt to do that — using the excuse of COVID-19 — is set to take place in Davos, Switzerland in the Northern Hemisphere summer this year.
Did you know Jim Rickards saw this coming well before the pandemic?
You would have seen it coming too if you read his last book, Aftermath, published on 29 July 2019.
‘The world is overdue for a new international monetary conference to implement a true global monetary reset,’ he wrote six months before the virus escaped from Wuhan.
‘The most pressing question for monetary elites is whether a conference is convened proactively with a view to creating a coherent system, or convened reactively in the midst of a new global financial crisis likely to produce a draconian response.’
Well, here we are.
The elites have changed the rules of capitalism in their favour five times in the last 100 years.
This year, they’re about to do it again at the 51st Davos conference titled…wait for it…‘The Great Reset’.
Just as Jim predicted a year-and-a-half ago, uber-elite Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum founder, states:
‘To achieve a better outcome, the world must act jointly and swiftly to revamp all aspects of our societies and economies, from education to social contracts and working conditions.
‘Every country, from the United States to China, must participate, and every industry, from oil and gas to tech, must be transformed. In short, we need a “Great Reset” of capitalism…’
We must keep shoving, says this one-worlder — alert to the unique opportunity before him.
It is time to push the Great Reset.’
— Brian Maher, The Daily Reckoning, 9 December 2020
Jim’s got a lot of stuff right in the last 40 years.
Rarely, though, has a prediction gone so exactly to script, down to the word!
This prediction was no voodoo or fluke.
Jim Rickards simply has regular access to the people who have been planning this reset for years.
Jim and former Fed
chairman Ben Bernanke
Jim with former Treasury
secretary Tim Geithner
Jim and former
congressman Ron Paul
These same connections enabled him to famously predict, on television, Trump’s shock election win in 2016, as well as Brexit. Both these forecasts were made in the face of overwhelming odds for Hillary Clinton and the ‘Remain’ campaign.
Jim was a general counsel for the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) in 1998. Amid a ‘thundering herd of lawyers’, he negotiated with 19 other Wall Street banks a $3.6 billion bailout…preventing a global financial crisis-type event.
Not many people know we were mere hours from every market in the world shutting down.
The same models and connections Jim is using to map the Long COVID Decade predicted the ACTUAL global financial crisis that followed 10 years later.
‘If you had a list of things that you should’ve done to prevent crises from happening again, they did the opposite. They let banks act like hedge funds. They let everybody trade more derivatives. They allowed more leverage, less regulation, bad models, etc.
‘I was sitting there in 2005, 2006, even earlier, saying, “This is going to happen again, and it’s going to be worse.” I gave a series of lectures at Northwestern University. I was an advisor to the McCain campaign. I advised the U.S. Treasury. I warned everybody I could find.’
Unfortunately, in that instance no one listened.
In March 2008, Bear Stearns failed. In June/July 2008, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac failed. Followed by the failure of Lehman Brothers. We were days away from Morgan Stanley being next, then Goldman Sachs, Citibank, followed by Bank of America.
The point is…
It would pay to listen closely to what Jim is predicting right now.
Specifically, you need to know what he sees as the coming ‘symptoms’ of the Long COVID Decade. So, you can be aware of them. And prepare for them.
Prepare for the ‘MMT vaccination’…
This will be a defining feature of the Long COVID Decade.
It’s telling that Janet Yellen was just appointed US Treasury Secretary. Prepare for a merging of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury into a single spending/monetisation entity to implement Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).
‘MMT fails not because of what it says but because of what it ignores. The issue is not whether there is a legal limit on money creation but whether there is a psychological limit.’
— Jim Rickards in
The New Great Depression
The theory is not much of a theory because it lacks evidence. And there’s nothing ‘modern’ about it because it has been around for over 100 years.
But the need of governments everywhere to spend money in response to the pandemic has put MMT centre stage.
It’ll be the key agenda at ‘The Great Reset’ in Davos later this year.
It’ll be their ‘vaccination’ for economic long COVID.
But, as you’ll see in THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION, it’s a disaster in the making. A ‘closed system with no escape,’ as Jim explains in his new book.
You need to get your head around this. Because these efforts will influence fiscal and monetary policy in Western nations for years to come.
But what about Australia in particular?
Australia and China were on a collision course before COVID-19 — with the banning of Huawei from 5G and tough new foreign interference laws angering Beijing.
Then we were the first nation to question China’s story on the pandemic — openly demanding investigations and transparency — and our fate was sealed…
We should feel proud about Australia’s willingness to stand up to China. But, unquestionably, one of the symptoms of the Long COVID Decade will be an ever-worsening relationship with our biggest trading partner…
Australia-China collision course
December 2020 marked the fifth anniversary of the China-Australia free trade deal. The next five years, though, will see that relationship get worse and worse.
This will have multiple sub-symptoms for our economy. Our national security. And your wealth.
I pointed out for much of 2020 that Australia faced a choice here. Between our key security partner in the US and our key economic partner in China.
Well, we’ve chosen.
But did we choose wisely?
As you know, China’s trade war escalation has come thick and fast lately. Australian wine, barley, meat, cotton, timber, coal, seafood, tourism and plenty more are on the list of trade war victims.
Australian businesses, already on the ropes, will continue to pay the price in 2021 and beyond.
Chinese policies are yet to be fully understood or revealed, so it’s tough to model out what happens in the next few years. Tough, but by no means impossible…
And you should be worried about what happens next…
‘Will America come to Australia’s aid in terms of our export markets that have been affected? No.’
— the Financial Times
Moralising and geopolitics aside, how should you reposition your capital for deteriorating relations and an escalating trade war with China?
Jim Rickards famously predicted the currency wars would morph into the trade wars we’re seeing right now.
His next forecast, where Australia is concerned, is a vital one.
As part of the pre-release of THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION, I sat down with Jim for a riveting Zoom conversation on this topic, which you’ll receive alongside the book.
- Why China is our kryptonite. No more wine. No more coal. No more students. What’s next? Nearly half of ALL Australia’s exports to China are iron ore. Prices have recently surged to record highs. What happens if China plays that card…?
- The REAL reason for China’s ‘wolf warrior diplomacy’ with Australia. It’s not because we embarrassed the Chinese over the pandemic. It’s because they see us as a ‘strategic threat’.
- Will America leave us in the cold? Joe Biden’s victory puts Australia in an awkward position. Our security partner may choose better relations with China, just when we’ve escalated tensions…
- The ‘swamp creatures’ controlling Joe Biden. A tight-knit group of Washington insiders who will determine US-Australia relations over the next four years.
- Australia’s China PLAN B: Jim admires our stance: ‘Appeasing bullies doesn’t work.’ But how can we keep the economy running in the Long COVID Decade, even in a worst-case scenario where China exports completely dry up? Jim has an answer…
- What’s the investment angle here? Resources are incredibly undervalued relative to financial assets at the moment. Perhaps the latest China escalation, which targets coal specifically, is a buying opportunity. Does Jim Rickards see POSITIVE investable trends based on this changing relationship?
Honestly, it’s worth getting your hands on the book just to get this accompanying video interview on its own.
Clear answers and explanations…in a world where clarity is in short supply
Danny Altmann, a professor of immunology at Imperial College London, says when you get long COVID you enter a ‘long-term condition for which we have no current explanation and no treatment plan’.
We also have ZERO idea how long the condition lasts.
No one is really telling you what ‘Long Financial COVID’ means for Australia and the world.
And what you should do.
That is why you need to read THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION: WINNERS AND LOSERS IN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLD ASAP.
The financial news is telling you jobs, investment and business will revive now vaccines are coming.
Regular news is predicting a ‘spectacular rebound’ — sending shoppers into a frenzy. And sending corporate profits back to their record highs.
The banks are telling you to expect a sharp V-shaped recovery.
The prestigious business schools are telling you this recovery is already faster — and stronger — than predicted.
And the stock markets?
Well, as you know, they’re priced for perfection.
The investment houses like Morgan Stanley are telling you — predictably — to buy more stocks.
Wherever the markets are now, they insist, they’ll be higher one year from now.
Jim Rickards and I are telling you something very different.
For instance, there’s one symptom Jim Rickards would pretty much stake his house on…
A historic flight to gold in the Long COVID Decade
Jim Rickards believes gold is going to be THE investment to own in the years ahead. His arguments are laid out extensively in the book.
But, for Australian gold investors, the gold price is only half the equation. The exchange rate is the other half.
As I’ve already mentioned, a big chunk of the reason why Jim favours gold is that the US dollar is looking increasingly frail in a post-pandemic world.
But that’s just one of three reasons outlined in THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION explaining why the gold price should soar higher.
The other two are a continuation of the current gold bull market and the potential for a further crisis, layered on top of the pandemic recovery. The latter two are simple and Jim covers them ably.
Right now, Jim Rickards’ models are telling us that the dollar price of gold is heading significantly higher in 2021 and beyond.
But how do you make the most of this as an Aussie investor?
Our currency is what’s known as a ‘risk on’ bet. We do well in the world economy’s good times, and our currency goes up in value. We do badly during poor times, and our currency falls fast.
This currency instability, combined with Australia’s legal and political stability, means Aussie investors are best placed globally to benefit from owning gold.
Why? Gold is priced in US dollars. The Aussie gold price is the US dollar gold price, converted to the exchange rate to Aussie dollars. In other words, the exchange rate is half the equation determining the price of gold in Australia. This creates a uniquely beneficial position for Aussie investors.
I explain everything — and how to position yourself now — in the bonus chapter of THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION.
As you’ll see when you make your way through the book, the adverse effects (the symptoms) are going to be intergenerational.
Stock markets everywhere have priced in a recovery that simply isn’t going to happen.
If you’re a savvy investor, you should be buying gold now while it remains cheap.
You should also have your eyes fully opened by THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION: WINNERS AND LOSERS IN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLD…
- ‘One of the greatest blunders in history’… Why the lockdown strategy, on a GLOBAL scale, was unnecessary, ineffective, poorly executed, and based on both official deception and bad science. Costs were not properly calculated. Better alternatives were ignored. And, as Jim will starkly show you, there will be consequences for years to come that you need to prepare for now…
- The ‘dollars-for-lives fallacy’ debunked… Lockdown supporters have attempted to rebut critics by claiming the critics are, in effect, trading dollars for lives. ‘How many will die for the Dow?’ wrote Nobel Prize economist Paul Krugman. You’ll see why this is a dangerous delusion that has public opinion in the palm of its hand…
- Jim’s personal trip to Wuhan… Did the virus really escape from the biosafety-level-four (BSL-4) Wuhan Institute of Virology? Rickards devotes an entire chapter in the book to this…but not simply to indulge in conspiracy theories. Understanding the controversy surrounding COVID-19’s origins is key to predicting how China fits into the world order, the global economy, and Australia’s foreign policy in the coming years.
- The ‘new post-pandemic standard’ for commercial office space worldwide. The COVID slowdown in commercial real estate is an opportunity, insists the Financial Review. DON’T BET ON THAT, insists Jim. At least not any time soon.
- Bankruptcies, closures, even by solvent retailers, pullbacks by bank lenders, rent strikes by tenants, pervasive lease renegotiation by remaining tenants, general deflationary trends AND a permanent shift to remote work…this sector will be toxic for years. But a bottom WILL come…and it will at some point be oversold. Jim reveals when he thinks that could be, and how to play it…
- Jim’s three-part strategy to earning more annual percentage points than the market in the uncertain years ahead…
- Social disorder — that’s here for the ‘long haul’ too… What you saw in 2020 was nothing. The veneer of civilisation is paper thin. When COVID-19 emerged, the paper was torn. Jim future-casts what that might evolve into five, 10, 15 years from now…
- The ravaged sector that isn’t a buy yet…but could be the buy-of-the-century when it is… Full disclosure: The potential gains on offer here meant I made a play for the bottom late last year and got burned. Stocks here have plummeted…rallied a bit…then plummeted further. But a bottom is coming. And, as you’ll see, this global industry can come back at ‘the flick of a switch’. And when it finally does, a small set of Australian and global stocks should see once-in-a-lifetime recovery gains…
- Why ‘set-and-forget’ WILL NOT WORK as an investing strategy for the rest of this decade. It could lose you 30% to 50% of the market value of your capital. Jim Rickards lays out an alternative strategy for you…
- How to get diversification to actually work for you in the Long COVID Decade. You CAN improve returns — without commensurate risk — during the coming period of economic stagnation. But it’s NOT the diversification your wealth manager will try to force on you…
- Understanding how robot algorithms will define market moves even more than they are already…and how to ‘front-run’ them…
- The return-costing myth about stocks and bonds that will be pushed on you as the decade progresses. It’ll work well to keep Collins Street fund managers fat as the world economy deteriorates…but it won’t do you any good at all…
- Nine ‘nimble and liquid’ markets it will pay to have exposure to in the Long COVID Decade.
- Why COVID-19 has propelled gold into its third great bull run that will take it to record highs. Jim’s prediction for the price of an ounce by 2026 will shock you…
- CASH in a zero-yield post-pandemic world — is it worth the paper it’s printed on? This may come as a shock from renowned ‘sound money’ gold bull Jim Rickards, but the answer is YES. Definitely. However, you need to know why, how much to hold, and how best to make use of cash’s ‘underrated advantages’.
Believe it or not, all that is just a fraction of what you’ll learn when you read THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION: WINNERS AND LOSERS IN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLD.
Put simply: You need this book.
The world has suffered many financial crises over the last 100 years.
Along the way, we also suffered the 1957 Asian flu, the 1968 Hong Kong flu, and the 2009 swine flu.
The jaded observer might say there’s nothing new about market crashes or pandemics.
That what we’re going through has been seen before, and this is no different. This too shall pass.
That’s a mistake.
This convergence of viral and economic crises is different and worse.
The book will show you this clearly.
And what, specifically and proactively, you can do about it.
So, how do you get your hands on this book?
We were in the process of arranging a print run of 5,000 copies for Australian readers with Jim’s international publisher, Penguin.
But supply and mailing bottlenecks, due to the pandemic, mean we didn’t know exactly when we’d be able to start mailing them. And there is absolutely no time to waste here.
As such, after a fair bit of wrangling with Penguin, we’ve managed to secure Australian rights to an e-Book version you can download for yourself and read in your own time.
This took some doing; it’s not their preferred form of distribution as they make much less money on each copy. But we’ve managed it, for a limited time and with a limited number of copies.
Within one working day, you’ll be able to download and start reading THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION: WINNERS AND LOSERS IN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLD once you’ve clicked the link at the end of this letter and filled in a few boxes.
All I ask in return is that you take a subscription — with a no-obligation, 30-day trial period — of our newsletter, Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence Australia.
This is absolutely a ‘try before you fully commit to a subscription’ deal.
We don’t want you locked into anything before you’ve had time to a) read the book cover to cover, and b) go over the entire Strategic Intelligence Australia archive and live recommendation portfolio.
You’ll have 30 days to do that.
Then, if you don’t wish to stay with us, simply let us know and we will cancel your subscription for a full refund.
Even if you do that, you can keep your personal e-Book copy of THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION, with Jim’s and my compliments.
I really think you’ll stick with us though.
The official subscription price of Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence Australia is just $149 a year.
Given everything I’ve shown you about Jim, the contacts he has, and the controversial calls he’s got spot on, $149 is a paltry sum to have his ongoing guidance in 2021 and beyond.
But, with Australian publication of this vital book, we’re going to cut that first-year price to just $99
Just $99 will get you a full 12 months of Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence Australia and THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION.
Think about that price.
That’s virtually nothing.
Think about the stakes here.
There is good and bad in this turning point.
The bad is all around us. Some of it in plain view. Much of it not apparent to most investors (but forecast clearly in the book).
It will give you some specific ways to soften the impact on your wealth.
But there is good, too, believe it or not. Good most investors won’t be aware of in these dark times. The book will enlighten you on these opportunities as well. Which brings us to:
‘Emergent property’ wealth opportunities will abound
As you’ll see when you dig into the book, complexity theory is a big part of Jim’s forecasting.
This first rule is that important developments seem to come from nowhere.
The technical term for this is an ‘emergent property’.
It refers to an event that cannot be inferred from complete knowledge of all the elements in a system.
Jim gives the example of a good bowl of chilli. You can have a list of ingredients, including tomatoes, beans, beef mince, capsicum, and all of the other spices. None of that will allow you to infer the aroma and great taste of chilli.
You must mix the ingredients, cook them, let them marinate for a while.
Only then can you experience the emergent property — the real flavour of chilli.
Emergent properties can be good or bad.
Many emergent properties will present themselves in the coming decade.
They’ll come from the mixing of two complex systems.
The first system is the pandemic. The fourth worst in terms of fatalities in the past 650 years, since the Black Death. The second is the ‘new great depression’ Jim describes at length. This is the result of the pandemic itself to a small extent…but mostly our response to it.
We’ve talked about many negative things that are on the horizon as a result.
But what ‘emergent property’ wealth-building opportunities might arise from all this?
There have already been several. More will come.
We talk about emergent properties in THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION: WINNERS AND LOSERS IN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLD.
And we’ll be delving into SPECIFIC opportunities that arise throughout 2021 in Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence Australia.
A very early example…
A firm called Robinhood — the highly successful online discount broker you’ve likely heard in the news recently with regard to GameStop.
What sets it apart is that it is specifically geared to younger first-time investors. And it relies more on a mobile phone app than a desktop platform. It also encourages options trading, which is highly leveraged, rather than traditional purchases and sales of stocks.
Robinhood has thrived in the early pandemic world.
Its marketing mix flourished when millions were stuck at home and had limited options for activity. They took to the phone app as a form of legalised gambling while sporting seasons were cancelled.
In the US, millions of people received US$1,200 pandemic bailout cheques last summer and literally didn’t know what to do with the money. They started buying call options at about the same time the market surged higher after the collapse in February and March.
When you buy leveraged call options in a bull market, the profits pile up fast.
Robinhood has raised hundreds of millions in recent months ahead of a rumoured IPO this year.
It’s expected to be valued at $20 billion or more.
Its success is just one surprise emergent property from the diverse ingredients that make up a pandemic and a depression.
More will present themselves.
There’s one more essential add-on you’ll receive if you take up a subscription to Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence Australia, with a 30-day trial period, right now.
Something you cannot get anywhere else in the world…
EXCLUSIVE BONUS CHAPTER
Long COVID Decade Australia: What comes next, how to prepare
Australia has earned the right to pat itself on the back.
COVID’s arrival in the lucky country barely impacted mortality numbers. We had no excess deaths between mid-February and the end of May, according to a study.
That’s compared to a 37% increase in England and Wales and a 38% increase in Spain, for example. They were the worst performers in the study.
In fact, deaths in Australia actually fell relative to what was expected for the year!
Not bad, is it? Especially for a pandemic…
Not so fast.
In ‘Long COVID Decade Australia: What comes next, how to prepare’, we look at a little-known myth regarding Australia’s true COVID fatality rate.
We examine a worst-case scenario where the pandemic could actually RUN RAMPANT here in 2021 and 2022.
This is a higher probability than most people think right now.
At the very least, you should be factoring the symptoms of intermittent Australian lockdowns into your investing and wealth protection strategy.
This could be our reality for years to come.
It’s worth pointing out that, in a small amount of time, Eastern Europe went from being top of the class in terms of pandemic numbers to the COVID-19 hotspot of the world. The Czech Republic being a prime example.
Could that actually happen here?
And what is a TRUE, warts-and-all prognosis for our economy?
Will we be left behind by the global economic recovery? Will our economy get dragged under by the lack of tourism and business travel?
What about the China conundrum? Where will this monumental fight we’ve picked have us sitting five years from now?
As you’ll see in the bonus chapter, I first recommend steering clear of Chinese stocks, and stocks with too much exposure to China.
But I want to make one thing clear. This does not include diversified resource stocks. Commodities are a global marketplace and I don’t expect the large producers to take a significant hit from China’s attempted boycott.
Indeed, the coal and iron ore prices surged despite China’s disruption.
So, which stocks should you be targeting instead? Indeed, which stocks stand to actually BENEFIT from China’s belligerence to Australia and Southeast Asia in the coming years?
I name several in this concluding chapter of the book…
Finally, I’ve identified a rather adventurous speculative play for you.
It’s more than just ‘buy the dip’.
Frankly, it’s so contrarian most normal investors would find it bonkers right now.
But I’ve crunched the numbers and completed the projections. And if I’m right — and you catch this rebound before the masses — it’s unlikely you will ever make a better investment for the rest of your lifetime.
And that’s not hyperbole.
In my opinion, the perceived risk here has become, in recent weeks, way, WAY higher than the actual risk.
This imminent rebound should be a global phenomenon in the next three to six months.
And, as you’ll see, I’ve identified a way for you to ‘bundle invest’ on this trend with a US-listed ETF. These shares are down by about a third from their January 2020 levels, having crashed 60% initially.
It’s a SIGNIFICANT buy opportunity, in my opinion.
And there is a more targeted local play. But this is NOT a buy…not yet.
We’ll be watching it closely as 2021 progresses…
If I’m right about a global comeback of this industry being THE investment story of the next few years…you’ll be sending me a thank you card (and perhaps a bottle of nice Australian wine) come Christmas 2022!
The time to consider all these moves is NOW
The advice you’ll get in THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION: WINNERS AND LOSERS IN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLD is urgent.
The strategies are designed to be implemented while most people are still confused…and trying to figure out what the Long COVID Decade might look like.
The book will give you some immediate answers. And an edge.
If you click on the link below, you’ll be given details on how to gain access to your very own copy of this e-Book within one working day.
You’ll get the exclusive bonus chapter, ‘Long COVID Decade Australia: What comes next, how to prepare’.
You’ll get 12 monthly issues of Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence Australia, as well as detailed weekly email bulletins.
All for the discounted price of $99, which you can request to be refunded in full within the first 30 days if you so desire.
All you need to do is click on the link below and spend about three to five minutes adding your details to the secure order page.
TO START YOUR SUBSCRIPTION WITH A NO-OBLIGATION, 30-DAY TRIAL PERIOD OF JIM RICKARDS’ STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE AUSTRALIA
It’s no longer just about the virus…
‘Historically, pandemics have forced humans to break with the past and imagine their world anew. This one is no different. It is a portal, a gateway between one world and the next.’
— Arundhati Roy, Financial Times
‘It is going to be hard to go back to normal, especially now that we are constantly informed that we cannot go back to normal.’
Lionel Shriver, Spiked
You’re pandemic-world-weary enough by now to know how things can change on a dime on a monthly basis.
In November 2020, Australia was the toast of the world, with active COVID cases you could count on your hands and no community transmissions.
A month later, we had a new cluster in New South Wales growing by dozens a day, flights cancelled, and new lockdown restrictions across Sydney.
All that said…
Clearly, aggressive suppression has worked for us. In the sense that it’s reduced the virus to flare-ups we can control.
The point now, though, is no longer the virus itself.
With multiple vaccines on the horizon and the option of ready-to-enforce lockdowns while we wait for it…a foreign flu is not the prime threat.
It’s the after-symptoms.
While the US is dealing with the medical fallout of one of the loosest responses to the pandemic…
…AUSTRALIA must now deal with the economic fallout of the most draconian measures implemented by any country in the world.
You’ll be that much better prepared to deal personally with this fallout with this new book — and Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence Australia — as your guide.
With our guarantee that you can read and keep the book, scour the archive for every current Strategic Intelligence Australia recommendation, and STILL receive a refund of the $99 subscription price within the first 30 days if you’re so inclined…
…I would say this should be a fairly easy decision for you.
Arm yourself with the right knowledge. Click on the link below to get started.
Thanks for reading.
Managing Editor, Strategic Intelligence Australia
Frequently Asked Questions
What are you going to get if you respond right now?
You pay just $99 today (discounted from $149). After that order is processed, you’ll get a 12-month subscription to Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence, with a 30-day trial period.
You’ll get access to the eBook THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION: WINNERS AND LOSERS IN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLD.
You will receive the exclusive online bonus chapter, called ‘Long COVID Decade Australia: What comes next, how to prepare’.
And you will get access to the full archive and buy recommendations of Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence.
All that, for $99. You can get that $99 refunded within 30 days if you wish. And even if you do that, you can keep THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION: WINNERS AND LOSERS IN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLD, with our compliments.
What is Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence?
Jim believes, and explains in the book, that COVID-19 has ushered in a NEW great depression. The mainstream media just hasn’t cottoned on to this yet.
This new great depression is a story of numbers in terms of lost wealth and lost output. More importantly, it’s a story of people in terms of lost jobs, lost businesses and broken dreams. Finally, it’s a story of the future in terms of where the global economy goes from here. And YOUR future in terms of what you do with your own wealth in response.
All of these facets are going to play out over many years.
They’re covered in depth in THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION, and on an ongoing basis in Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence Australia.
You will receive monthly issues from Jim, with me (Nick Hubble) providing an Australian perspective and specific investment recommendations where applicable. You’ll also receive weekly updates, because the current situation is extremely fluid.
Put simply: Our aim in 2021 and throughout the Long COVID Decade is to be the most potent and predictive financial newsletter on the planet.
Despite what many will tell you, stock market behaviour has become remarkably easy to predict lately.
Stocks go up when the Fed cuts rates or indicates that rate cuts are coming. Stocks also go up when there’s good news on the trade war front.
Stocks go down when the trade war talks look like they’re breaking down. Stocks also go down when the Fed indicates it may stop raising rates or actually goes on ‘pause’.
Good news has outweighed bad news so far, so stocks have been trending higher. You don’t have to be a superstar analyst to figure this out.
But we believe this period is coming to an end.
Get ready. It’s going to happen. Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence Australia will guide you through the storm.
How does the no-obligation trial period of Jim Rickards’
Strategic Intelligence Australia work?
As explained above, it’s pretty simple.
$99 gets you a full year of Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence Australia. Plus a digital copy of THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION: WINNERS AND LOSERS IN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLD and a host of other special investment reports.
If, for whatever reason, you don’t want to stay on as a subscriber, no problem. You’ve got 30 days to try everything out. Just contact us within 30 days and we’ll give you a full refund of that $99. We’ll even let you keep THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION if you do that.
The phone number is 1300 029 501.
If you enjoy and appreciate Jim’s analysis in Strategic Intelligence, and wish to stay on, do nothing and you’ll be renewed at the official price of $149 after 12 months.
Who is Jim Rickards?
James Rickards is chief global strategist at West Shore Funds, editor of Strategic Intelligence, and director of The James Rickards Project, an inquiry into the complex dynamics of geopolitics and global capital.
He is the author of New York Times bestseller The Death of Money (Penguin, 2014) and national bestseller Currency Wars (Penguin, 2011).
He is a portfolio manager, lawyer and economist, and has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates.
In 1998, he was the principal negotiator of the rescue of LTCM, sponsored by the Federal Reserve.
His clients include institutional investors and government directorates.
He is an op-ed contributor to the Financial Times, The Evening Standard, The New York Times and The Washington Post, and has been interviewed by the BBC, CNN, NPR, C-SPAN, CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox and The Wall Street Journal.
Jim is also a visiting lecturer in globalisation at the Johns Hopkins University and the School of Advanced International Studies, and has delivered papers on risk at Singularity University, the Applied Physics Laboratory, and the Los Alamos National Laboratory.
He is an adviser on capital markets to the US intelligence community and the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
Who is Nickolai Hubble?
Nickolai Hubble is the managing editor of Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence Australia, editor of Gold Stock Fortunes and chief strategist of The Fleet Street Letter Monthly Alert.
After finishing his degrees in finance and law at Bond University in Australia in 2009, working for an investment bank didn’t seem so enticing anymore. An internship with his scholarship provider Goldman Sachs, during the height of the financial crisis, was quite enough of that.
Instead, Nick went to work for the company that allows its analysts to predict the financial crises that investment bankers cause. Fat Tail Media is a publishing business, dedicated to bringing you ideas that are too controversial to get a hearing in the mainstream press. And that’s where Nick found a very comfortable home.
In 2012, Nick exposed the subprime practices of Australian banks to his readers at The Money for Life Letter. His accusations that bankers and mortgage brokers routinely manipulate their customers’ loan applications were vindicated by a Royal Commission in 2018.
In 2018, Nick predicted Italy’s budget battles would lead to ‘Bloody October’ and successfully warned his subscribers about the worst period in financial markets since 2008. In August 2019, he compiled his predictions into a book called How the Euro Dies.