The tragedy in Paris is unfortunately the not-so-thin edge of the wedge. Governments will mobilise resources to minimise the prospect of future attacks. However I fear we’ll see more social unrest, and bloodshed on an even greater scale.
This is one time when I sincerely hope my prediction is completely and utterly wrong.
Only those who believe in pixies at the bottom of the garden would be naive enough to think every single refugee flooding into Europe has good intent. Europe’s kindness is seen, by some, as a weakness to be exploited. And exploit it they will.
Disenfranchised youth are ripe for recruitment into a cause against the establishment.
The following chart is the level of youth unemployment in the Middle East, Central Europe and the EU — the light blue bar is 2014 and the dark blue bar is 2015.
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Social mood and economic wellbeing go hand in glove. When a society feels prosperous there is a mood of generosity. When society is feeling less well off — Germany pre Second World War — the mood can turn ugly. ‘Someone else is to blame for me being financially disadvantaged’.
The deflationary effects at play in the world economy — too much supply, too much debt, currency devaluations and not enough demand — are gathering momentum. Greater deflationary pressure leads to rising unemployment.
Europe’s socialist policies will be stretched to breaking point. There will not be enough ‘other peoples’ money’ to maintain the generous social schemes.
Tensions are certain to rise between nationals and refugees. With what appears to be a bleak future, idle and angry youth are going to be attracted to radical causes that give ‘meaning’ to their lives.
The economic and social genies are out of the bottle. The link between these two trends makes me think we’ll see much more terror related tragedy in the coming years.
For The Daily Reckoning